Fundamental Overview

Silver posted steady gains over the past two days as expectations for a US-Iran nuclear agreement intensified. Precious metals typically draw safe-haven demand during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, and silver has been sensitive to shifts in Middle East tensions throughout this cycle. On Tuesday, Qatari mediators indicated that the language for a potential US-Iran deal had been drafted. US Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that an agreement could have been reached as early as yesterday and would have included the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of global oil consumption flows.

However, silver began trimming those gains late yesterday after the anticipated announcement window passed without confirmation. Market participants note that hopes for a deal will likely continue to underpin prices in the near term, provided there is no renewed escalation in tensions.

Attention now shifts to next week's US CPI report, which will be a critical input for the September FOMC decision and the Jackson Hole Symposium. The annual Kansas City Fed gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, has historically served as a platform where Fed chairs signal upcoming policy shifts. Silver, like other non-yielding assets, tends to face downward pressure when rate-hike expectations rise, as higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the metal. A hotter-than-expected reading would likely trigger a selloff in silver as traders raise their expectations for further rate hikes. Conversely, a softer report would diminish the risk of additional Federal Reserve tightening and potentially provide another boost to the metal.

Silver Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, silver has rallied back to a major downward trendline, coinciding with the key swing high at 63.20. This area represents a technically significant resistance zone. Sellers are expected to remain active around these levels, with stops placed above the trendline, positioning for a move toward new lows. Buyers, meanwhile, will be looking for a decisive break above this resistance to extend bullish positions toward the 71.55 level.

Silver Technical Analysis – 4-Hour Timeframe

The 4-hour chart shows an upward trendline defining the current bullish structure. If price retraces to this trendline, buyers are likely to defend it with risk defined below the line, targeting a push to new highs. Sellers, on the other hand, will be watching for a breakout below the trendline to increase bearish exposure toward new lows.

Silver Technical Analysis – 1-Hour Timeframe

On the 1-hour chart, minor support is seen near the most recent swing low around the 61.00 level. If price reaches this zone, buyers may step in with risk defined below the swing low, aiming to push toward new highs. Sellers will look for a break below this level to shift momentum to the downside, with the next target near the trendline around 57.00. Red lines on the chart define the average daily range for the session.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today brings the latest US Initial Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow concludes the trading week with the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which serves as another key labor-market data point the Fed monitors alongside inflation readings when calibrating policy.