The United States added just 29,000 jobs in September, a sharp slowdown from August's 133,000 gain (itself revised down from an initially reported 162,000), as private-sector hiring was partly offset by another decline in government employment. Private payrolls rose by 46,000, while government payrolls fell by 17,000. Initial payroll estimates are also revised as more complete data arrives—a point underscored by August's downward revision.

The headline points to a marked deceleration from August. Underneath the topline number, however, the picture is mixed: construction, manufacturing and health care continued to add workers, while information, financial activities, and professional and business services lost ground. Financial markets responded to the report with lower Treasury yields, a weaker US dollar and higher stock futures.

Where jobs were added in September

• Private education and health services: +20,000, including 23,000 in health care and social assistance
• Construction: +11,000
• Leisure and hospitality: +10,000
• Manufacturing: +9,000
• Transportation and warehousing: +7,600
• Other services: +6,000
• Retail trade: +5,800
• Wholesale trade: +5,000
• Utilities: +500

Where jobs were lost in September

• Government: −17,000
• Information: −10,000
• Professional and business services: −9,000, including a 10,900-job decline in temporary help services
• Financial activities: −7,000
• Mining and logging: −2,000

Three-month trend: modest growth, concentrated hiring

Over July through September, nonfarm payrolls increased by 152,000, an average of roughly 51,000 jobs per month. That stretch includes July's 10,000 decline, August's 133,000 gain and September's 29,000 increase.

Private employers added 163,000 jobs across the three months, averaging approximately 54,000 per month. Government employment declined by 11,000, an average loss of approximately 3,700 per month.

The sector breakdown shows where hiring has held up—and where weakness has persisted:

• Private education and health services: +72,000, averaging +24,000 per month. Health care and social assistance contributed 71,400, accounting for nearly all of the sector's net growth.
• Construction: +45,000, averaging +15,000 per month. Jobs were added in all three months, although September's increase was the smallest.
• Manufacturing: +44,000, averaging approximately +14,700 per month. Hiring remained positive each month but slowed from 20,000 in July to 15,000 in August and 9,000 in September.
• Transportation and warehousing: +21,200, averaging approximately +7,100 per month. Employment increased throughout the period.
• Wholesale trade: +19,300, averaging approximately +6,400 per month, with gains in each month.
• Other services: +15,000, averaging +5,000 per month.
• Leisure and hospitality: +9,000, averaging +3,000 per month. August's and September's gains largely recovered July's sharp decline.
• Retail trade: +6,300, averaging +2,100 per month. Hiring was uneven, with an August decline sandwiched between two months of gains.
• Utilities: +3,700, averaging approximately +1,200 per month.
• Mining and logging: −2,000, averaging approximately −700 per month.
• Government: −11,000, averaging approximately −3,700 per month. August's increase failed to offset losses in July and September.
• Professional and business services: −20,000, averaging approximately −6,700 per month, with declines in all three months. Temporary help services lost 20,700 jobs, an average of −6,900 per month.
• Information: −24,000, averaging −8,000 per month, as August's and September's losses outweighed July's gain.
• Financial activities: −26,000, averaging approximately −8,700 per month, with employment falling in every month.

What it means for markets

The labor market is still adding jobs on balance, but the pace is modest. Education and health services, construction and manufacturing together added 161,000 jobs over the three months—more than the total nonfarm payroll gain—while losses elsewhere pulled the headline lower.

There is also evidence of slowing momentum within the sectors that are still hiring. Construction and manufacturing added jobs in each month, but their gains became progressively smaller. Meanwhile, financial activities and professional and business services continued to shed workers, raising the question of whether AI is a factor in those declines.

Payrolls data carries this weight because Federal Reserve officials consider labor market conditions when setting interest rate policy, so each release feeds into market expectations for the path of rates. The 20,700-job drop in temporary help services over the three months is also notable, as that category is often watched as a barometer of companies' near-term staffing demand.

For traders, that detail gives the softer headline some support beneath the surface. The report shows concentrated hiring alongside persistent pockets of weakness, a combination that could temper expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. The wage and inflation picture still matters, however, in determining how much room the Fed has to respond.

Treasury yields fall, led by shorter maturities

The modest declines seen ahead of the jobs report became more pronounced after its release, led by the shorter end of the curve:

• 2-year: 4.7246% now, versus 4.7809% in the Kickstart post. Down an additional 5.63 basis points, and now down 6.24 basis points on the day.
• 5-year: 4.9373% now, versus 4.9926%. Down an additional 5.53 basis points, and now down 6.77 basis points on the day.
• 10-year: 5.1842% now, versus 5.2242%. Down an additional 4.00 basis points, and now down 4.98 basis points on the day.
• 30-year: 5.5738% now, versus 5.5989%. Down an additional 2.51 basis points, and now down 2.92 basis points on the day.

The larger decline at the front end—where yields are typically most sensitive to shifts in near-term policy expectations—is consistent with traders marking down expectations for further Fed tightening. The market is now pricing a 16% chance of a hike in October.

US dollar lower against the majors

The dollar was mixed ahead of the report. It is now lower against all the major currencies shown except the Canadian dollar, with its earlier gain against the loonie narrowing.

• EURUSD: Up to 1.1247 from 1.1241. The euro is now 0.05% higher on the day, turning the dollar modestly lower.
• USDJPY: Down to 157.26 from 157.77. Its daily decline has widened to 0.51%, versus 0.19% earlier.
• GBPUSD: Up to 1.3223 from 1.3209. Its daily gain has increased to 0.18%, versus 0.08%.
• USDCHF: Down to 0.8263 from 0.8282. Its daily decline has widened to 0.53%, versus 0.30%.
• USDCAD: Down to 1.4228 from 1.4240. The dollar remains 0.06% higher on the day, but that is below its earlier 0.15% gain.
• AUDUSD: Up to 0.6960 from 0.6937. Its daily gain has widened to 0.45%, versus 0.12%.
• NZDUSD: Up to 0.5622 from 0.5609. Its daily gain has increased to 0.34%, versus 0.11%.

US stock futures point higher

• Dow: Now +425 points, versus +208 earlier—an additional 217 points higher.
• Nasdaq 100: Now +357 points, versus +170 earlier—an additional 187 points higher.
• S&P 500: Now +67 points, versus +36 earlier—an additional 31 points higher.

The initial reaction has been lower yields, a broadly weaker dollar and stronger stock futures. That combination suggests traders are taking some comfort from reduced pressure for additional Fed tightening. The next question is whether those moves can hold as the North American session progresses. Beyond the session, upcoming wage and inflation data—and any shift in Federal Reserve communication—will help shape how expectations for October and beyond evolve.

Key forex technical levels

EURUSD: The pair remains below the high for the day at 1.1269, with the current price trading at 1.1858. After yesterday's sharp decline, the price has moved away from its falling 100-hour moving average at 1.1319, and the June 2026 low stands at 1.13245. All of those levels would need to be broken—and stay broken—to give buyers more hope for further upside.

USDJPY: The pair fell below and away from its 200-hour moving average at 157.704 and its 100-hour moving average at 157.513. The 38.2% retracement at 157.136 has also been broken. A swing area from 156.36 up to 156.655 is the next target on further selling.

USDCAD: The pair moved lower but only as far as its rising 100-hour moving average at 1.42058, stalling near that level and last trading at 1.4225. The price is down on the day, but it still needs to get and stay below the 100-hour moving average to give sellers more hope that the upside trend has lost momentum.

USDCHF: The pair moved below its 200-hour moving average earlier in the day and has stayed below it; a trend line was broken as well. The move took the price to a low of 0.8228, which fell short of the 38.2% retracement at 0.82167 of the trend move higher from the August 20 low. Getting below that retracement would give sellers more control, and the 200-hour moving average is now stronger resistance—traders who are short would not want to see a move back above that level.

AUDUSD: The pair has moved higher and is testing its 100-hour moving average at 0.69675, with the high reaching 0.6970, just above that level; the current price is 0.6959. If the price is to go higher, it needs to get and stay above the 100-hour moving average, which sits within a swing area between 0.6962 and 0.6978. A break above would have traders looking toward the falling 200-hour moving average at 0.7007. The price fell below the 200-hour moving average on September 10 and has trended lower since then; September's high was 0.72374, and yesterday's low extended to 0.69033.

Source: ForexLive — https://investinglive.com/technical-analysis/yields-move-lower-stock-futures-point-to-a-higher-open-the-usd-falls-after-jobs-report/