Senate Leadership Fund Puts Seven Figures Into Kansas Senate Race Democrats Haven't Won Since 192
Key Takeaways
- •The Senate Leadership Fund is committing seven figures to Kansas advertising to help Sen. Roger Marshall counter Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton in the closing weeks of the midterm campaign.
- •The super PAC is holding back additional North Carolina spending, where it has already invested more than $30 million, while increasing its outlays in Ohio and Iowa.
- •A September Emerson College Polling survey placed Hamilton at 45 percent among Kansas likely voters, within the poll's 3.6-point credibility interval of Marshall's 43 percent, with 8 percent undecided.
- •Hamilton, a longtime Methodist pastor making his first run for office, leads Marshall 42 percent to 27 percent among independent voters.
- •In the same survey, 48 percent of Kansas likely voters called the economy the most important issue, and President Trump's approval rating stood at 40 percent with 53 percent disapproving.

The Senate Leadership Fund, the Republican Party's biggest Senate-focused super PAC, is committing seven figures to Kansas with just weeks to go before the midterm elections — a striking investment in a state where Democrats have not won a Senate election since 1932. The money is intended to help Sen. Roger Marshall fend off Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton.
According to a report published Friday by Semafor, the group is launching the new Kansas advertising campaign while placing additional spending in North Carolina on hold. It has already spent more than $30 million attempting to elect Republican Michael Whatley over former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper in that state. Now some of that attention is shifting to territory Republicans once had little reason to worry about. The reallocation amounts to late-cycle triage, with dollars held back in one expensive battleground being redirected toward a state the party had long counted as safely Republican.
Hamilton, a longtime Methodist pastor making his first run for political office, has turned what once looked like a routine reelection campaign for Marshall into a genuinely competitive contest.
A September survey from Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media found Hamilton at 45 percent among likely voters, with Marshall at 43 percent, Libertarian David Graham at 4 percent, and 8 percent undecided. The difference between Marshall and Hamilton fell within the poll's 3.6-point credibility interval — in practical terms, a gap that narrow means the survey cannot declare a clear leader. The eight percent of voters still undecided represent the pool both campaigns will court in the weeks before Election Day.
The numbers are especially unusual in Kansas. No Democrat has won one of the state's U.S. Senate seats in 94 years. According to Emerson, Hamilton is also drawing considerable support from independents, leading Marshall 42 percent to 27 percent among those voters in its September survey.
The economy could help explain why the race has tightened. In the same poll, 48 percent of voters called it their most important issue, far ahead of health care, housing affordability, immigration and other topics. President Donald Trump's approval rating among Kansas likely voters stood at 40 percent, while 53 percent disapproved.
Republicans are now spending money to ensure Hamilton cannot turn that opening into an upset. The Senate Leadership Fund's new ad attacks Hamilton as a “two-face extremist,” challenging the centrist image he has presented to voters and tying him to prominent national Democrats.
At the same time, the group is adjusting course elsewhere. It has recently boosted spending in Ohio and Iowa as Republicans decide where their money can make the biggest difference.
“SLF's job is to maintain the majority and this move reflects the most effective and efficient use of resources to do exactly that,” a person familiar with the group's plans told Semafor.
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, and Kansas was never supposed to be among the places where they had to spend heavily to protect that majority. With Election Day approaching, the race has become expensive enough that the party's most powerful Senate super PAC has decided it cannot simply leave Marshall on his own. For readers tracking the wider Senate battle, the numbers to watch in the closing weeks are Hamilton's margin among independents, the still-undecided eight percent, and whether the economy remains the issue dominating voters' minds.