Heading into the final two years of President Donald Trump's term, Republicans appeared to hold a firm grip on the Senate. Yet with less than two months until Election Day, control of the chamber is now genuinely up for grabs — a striking development in a midterm year, when the party holding the White House has historically lost ground, as Democrats did in 2018 and Republicans did in 2022.

Democrats find themselves competing in states that once seemed beyond their reach, as Trump's slipping approval ratings and voters' dissatisfaction with the economy create a difficult political environment for Republicans. At the same time, races Democrats once counted on winning have grown more complicated.

The contest is expected to exceed $3.4 billion in spending across all races during the midterm campaign. The stakes are enormous for Trump's agenda and his ability to fill administration posts and open court seats for the remainder of his term, since the Senate has the power to confirm or block presidential nominees — a leverage point Democrats used to considerable effect against judicial nominations during the final years of previous administrations. A Democratic majority would also control committee chairs and subpoena power, reshaping congressional oversight of the executive branch for the back half of Trump's term.

Republicans argue it is unlikely that everything will break in Democrats' favor, but they concede the landscape is challenging. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told South Dakota's KELOLAND News last week that he does "worry" about losing the chamber.

"I'm a realist," Thune said. "I don't ever try and sugarcoat things. I think it's a competitive environment right now."

Democrats need to net four seats to win a majority. The original path called for holding Michigan, Georgia and New Hampshire while reclaiming Republican-held seats in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio. That picture has shifted.

"We now have multiple paths for the majority," Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said last month. "We found new states — Iowa, Texas — which people a year ago weren't even paying attention to."

Some states where Democrats were most optimistic at the start of the cycle, such as Michigan and Maine, have become murkier.

In Michigan, where an open seat is on the ballot this fall, no GOP candidate has won a Senate race since 1994. But Democrats are struggling to unite behind nominee Abdul El-Sayed. The progressive favorite narrowly defeated moderate U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens in the August primary, and feelings remain raw after a bruising contest in which nearly $70 million was spent against El-Sayed.

Republicans believe Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate race by fewer than 20,000 votes, has an improved shot against El-Sayed. The Senate Leadership Fund — Senate Republicans' spending PAC — added $6 million to its Michigan advertising investment after El-Sayed's victory, bringing its total spending to $51 million, the third-highest total.

Democrats also viewed Maine as a prime opportunity to finally defeat five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins, in a state where Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris won more votes than Trump in 2024. Collins has proven durable before, surviving a heavily funded challenge in 2020 — the most expensive race in Maine history — when her candidacy was written off by many analysts and she won comfortably.

Progressive Graham Platner easily won the nomination in June, but he exited the race the following month over a sexual assault allegation that he denies. In late July, Democratic delegates chose Troy Jackson, a lesser-known former state legislative leader, to replace him.

Jackson has been forced to play catch-up. Collins and aligned super PACs have spent almost $80 million so far, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, while Jackson and Democratic-aligned groups have spent and reserved close to $45 million since he became the nominee.

Democrats increasingly see a genuine possibility in Texas — a state that has been an elusive goal for decades, despite repeated high-spending Democratic attempts, including Beto O'Rourke's narrow 2018 loss — as well as other GOP-led states including Iowa, Alaska and Ohio.

In Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who ousted four-term incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn to win the GOP nomination. Senate GOP leadership had backed Cornyn, viewing him as the stronger general election candidate — a dynamic that left the party's Washington establishment at odds with its MAGA wing.

Paxton has been shadowed for decades by legal and ethical questions, including indictments for securities fraud, though he was not convicted. He was also impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on corruption charges and acquitted by the state Senate.

Talarico and allied groups have spent nearly $30 million on advertising since the May runoff, compared with less than $3 million by pro-Paxton groups. The political fund associated with Trump last week spent $10 million on TV and digital ads to aid Paxton — the first major general election investment by MAGA Inc. for the midterms. Senate GOP leaders had petitioned Trump's political team to spend some of the more than $400 million it held last month to help Paxton.

Democrats have also increased their spending in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina, all states currently held by Republicans. The GOP, for its part, is feeling more optimistic about New Hampshire as well as Michigan, while spending more to defend its seats in Iowa and Alaska.

The expanded map has driven up anticipated total spending this cycle. In June, AdImpact projected $3.4 billion in advertising spending on Senate races, a significant increase from the $2.8 billion the firm projected in the fall of 2025.

Democrats' path has widened in part because of Trump's slumping job approval, notably on handling the economy, which stood at 32% in an AP-NORC poll in July — down from 40% in March 2025, shortly after he took office.

Trump's trade policies and the war in Iran, with its corresponding inflated fuel costs, have added to voters' economic uncertainty less than two months before Election Day.

"Things still cost too much. And so we've got to work on that issue," Republican Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio told The Associated Press. "We understand that and we know that's real."

Ohio Sen. Jon Husted heard the concern firsthand at a roundtable last month. Husted is working to fend off a comeback bid by former Sen. Sherrod Brown in another key matchup for both parties. Brown, a Democrat who built a durable brand with working-class voters across three terms before losing in 2024, is now seeking a return in a state that has trended sharply toward Republicans in recent federal elections.

During a discussion on housing, one attendee told Husted that costs were "skyrocketing" in part because of uncertainty around tariffs.

"Uncertainty is the killer to this economy," said Dean Windham, a real estate developer who previously ran for office as a Republican.

Some Republican Senate candidates have defended Trump's policies even while confronting concerns about their economic impact.

In Michigan, where Trump's tariffs on Canada have become a central issue, Rogers has backed the president's approach while leaving room for disagreement.

"President Trump is right to put America First — and tariffs are necessary, but are not a one-size-fits-all solution," Rogers said in a recent statement.

Even if Democrats hold every seat they currently control, they would still need to flip at least two seats in states Trump carried by double digits in 2024 to win the majority.

Republicans are betting that those underlying advantages will matter more as Election Day approaches — particularly as Trump and the party turn their attention toward mobilizing the voters who helped return him to the White House.

Trump told reporters last week that he will "be making a lot of stops" in the final 30 days before the election.

This week, Republicans will hold a midterm convention in Texas, where Trump is set to speak and top Senate candidates including Rogers and Husted are expected to attend.

Still, Republicans acknowledge they have work to do.

"Politics is local," Republican Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota said. He pointed to Trump's decision to import beef, which he said made farmers and ranchers "feel just like the administration pulled the rug right off from underneath" them.

"They're hurt," Rounds said. "They feel like they've been let down."

For voters watching the final stretch, the key signals will be where each side's money moves in the closing weeks — shifts in ad reservations in states like Texas, Iowa and Maine often reveal how party strategists privately assess their chances — along with Trump's rally schedule and whether the races in traditionally Republican states stay tight through late October.

This story has been corrected to reflect that the GOP midterm convention is this week, not next week.

Beaumont reported from Des Moines, Iowa.

Source: Fortune