Russia's regulated cryptocurrency trading volume could reach 3.5 trillion to 4 trillion rubles ($46.43 billion) in the first year after legalization, according to Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov.

The estimate highlights the potential scale of Russia's emerging regulated digital-asset market, although most existing crypto activity is expected to remain outside official exchanges initially. Russia is one of the few large economies to introduce a comprehensive licensing regime for crypto trading, moving from a previously restrictive stance toward a regulated framework.

Speaking to TASS ahead of the Eastern Economic Forum, Popov said the forecast is deliberately conservative. Finance Ministry data cited by Sberbank show that cryptocurrency transactions in Russia were running at around 50 billion rubles per day, or approximately 18 trillion rubles annually.

SberCIB Investment Research estimates that only about 20% of this activity, equivalent to 3.5–4 trillion rubles, will initially move to regulated exchanges.

Source: Bitcoin News

Crypto Trading Volume Could Reach $87 Billion by 2029

Sberbank expects the regulated market to expand as Russia's crypto infrastructure develops. According to Popov, annual regulated trading volume could reach 4.75–5.25 trillion rubles by 2028 before climbing to approximately 7.5 trillion rubles ($87.06 billion) by 2029.

The forecast points to a gradual migration of Russian crypto activity toward licensed financial institutions rather than an immediate transition.

A key reason for the cautious outlook is Russia's licensing timetable. Although the new legal framework takes effect on September 1, professional market participants have until July 1, 2027, to obtain the necessary licenses. This transition period means the regulated market will not have reached full operational maturity during its first year. The multi-year phase-in resembles approaches taken in other jurisdictions, such as the EU's MiCA regulation, which also allotted transition periods for existing service providers to obtain authorization.

Retail Limits Could Restrain Market Expansion

Regulations on retail investment in cryptocurrencies may also affect the pace of adoption. According to available reports, non-qualified investors are permitted to invest no more than 300,000 rubles ($3,800) worth of crypto per year via one licensed intermediary, and must pass a test on their risk awareness. Higher limits are available to qualified investors.

The availability of assets through official Russian exchanges could be another restriction. Officially, only Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tether's USDT have been approved for trading, with many other cryptocurrencies remaining unofficial. This could lead investors seeking exposure to other tokens to stick to unofficial cryptocurrency exchanges.

Unregulated Activity May Remain Significant

There is an important distinction between the overall level of crypto activity in the country and the trading volumes on the exchanges that will be regulated. The total volume of annual crypto activity in Russia may be about 18 trillion rubles, yet, according to Sberbank, only a small portion of it will find its way to regulated markets initially.

The legalization may create a substantial business opportunity for banks, brokers, and exchanges, while making oversight of digital asset activity easier. For investors, however, legalization does not equate to unrestricted trading.

What Happens Next?

The market's development depends on licensing, investor interest, regulatory changes, and whether the list of approved assets is expanded. If growth unfolds as Sberbank expects, Russia's regulated cryptocurrency market could amount to $87 billion per year by 2029.