Analytics firm Santiment has flagged rising short positions among the most profitable XRP wallets in its data, while a bearish price prediction submitted to the company's Score Arena platform — targeting a decline to approximately $0.99 — approaches its scheduled resolution on November 19. The findings were shared on X on November 6, comparing trading activity among profitable XRP wallets with the forecast, which would be considered invalid if the token closed above $1.36.

"A trader called $XRP lower, to ~$0.99, and said the call is wrong if $XRP closes above $1.36. $XRP is down ~10% since," Santiment stated.

Santiment Identifies Growing XRP Short Positions

According to Santiment, only one wallet in the group of most profitable XRP wallets it tracked still maintained a long position, and that account had not executed a trade since August. Meanwhile, three active short positions had collectively increased their exposure by approximately 2.1 million XRP since late October.

In perpetual futures markets, traders post collateral to gain exposure to cryptocurrency price movements without directly owning the underlying tokens. Short positions can generate gains when prices decline, while long positions benefit from upward movements. These derivatives positions should be distinguished from spot wallet balances, which represent actual cryptocurrency holdings rather than leveraged or directional trading exposure.

Tracking this particular cohort gives observers a view into how traders with demonstrated profitability are positioned; as a snapshot of exposure, it documents current behavior rather than dictating where prices move next.

XRP $0.99 Prediction Approaches November 19 Resolution

The bearish forecast was submitted through Score Arena, Santiment's platform for evaluating and funding selected traders. In its November 6 update, the firm questioned whether the trader's call reflected accurate market analysis or simply benefited from a broader market downturn.

"Called it, or lucky timing? The whole market dropped too," Santiment commented.

At the time of that assessment, Santiment estimated XRP needed to decline roughly another 17% to reach the $0.99 target. With XRP trading near $1.16 on November 7, the remaining decline required to reach the forecast stood at approximately 15%.

The prediction also established $1.36 as the price level that would invalidate the bearish call if XRP closed above it. The forecast is scheduled for resolution on November 19, although Santiment's November 6 update indicated that the prediction window would close in less than two days. A structure of this kind — a fixed target, an explicit invalidation close, and a scheduled resolution date — makes the outcome mechanically verifiable against public price data rather than subject to interpretation.

All three traders who opposed the bearish forecast on Score had been positioned on the wrong side of XRP's decline, according to Santiment. Their results remained provisional ahead of the scheduled resolution.

How Santiment's Score Arena Platform Works

Score Arena allows traders to submit cryptocurrency forecasts, while token holders can support participants based on their performance. Users can also back or oppose individual predictions. Under the platform's allocation model, Santiment provides its own trading capital to selected participants, and tokens staked by community members remain outside the actual trades.

Santiment described Score as a closed-beta product in its November 6 comments, meaning access remains limited to invited participants during the testing phase.

XRP Million-Token Wallets Reach 2026 High

Despite the increase in bearish derivatives activity, separate blockchain data showed continued growth in the number of large XRP holders. Santiment reported that wallets containing at least 1 million XRP reached 2,147 on November 3, marking the highest count recorded in 2026. The category added 28 addresses over a 10-day period.

The metric tracks wallet addresses that meet the specified holding threshold, offering a separate view of large XRP balances alongside the firm's analysis of futures trading positions. As with all address-based counts, a single person or entity can control multiple wallets, so the figures measure distribution across addresses rather than the number of distinct owners.

The XRP Ledger also recorded 7,934 new wallets on November 1, its sixth-highest daily wallet creation figure of the year. Santiment identified several conditions for assessing the network's outlook: daily wallet creation remaining above approximately 4,000, combined with an XRP price recovery above $1.30, would support a more constructive signal. Conversely, a decline below $1.20 alongside daily wallet creation falling under 3,000 would weaken that outlook, the analytics firm said.

Binance XRP Scarcity Gauge Reaches Four-Year High

A separate development emerged from cryptocurrency exchange reserves. A Binance XRP scarcity gauge reached a four-year high near 2.1 in an analysis published by CryptoQuant on November 5. The indicator measures the relative availability of XRP for trading, with higher readings suggesting greater scarcity. Exchange reserve figures are among the standard metrics analysts use to gauge how many tokens are readily tradeable on a given platform.

However, separate reserve figures showed that Binance held approximately 2.63 billion XRP on November 5, compared with 2.35 billion on November 3.

The combination of rising short exposure, increasing large-holder wallet counts and shifting exchange reserve indicators presents differing signals about XRP market positioning. While Santiment's derivatives data highlights growing bearish activity among selected profitable traders, its wallet statistics show an increase in addresses holding at least 1 million XRP. The $0.99 prediction's November 19 resolution provides a defined date for evaluating the trader's forecast.

Source: news.bitcoin | Writer: Ethan Collins | Originally published by Hokanews