AI Credit Bubble Could Set Up Bitcoin's Path to $1 Million, Says Arthur Hayes
Key Takeaways
- •SanDisk fell 3.7% in after-hours trading after issuing first-quarter revenue guidance of $10.3–$10.8 billion, falling short of Wall Street's $10.8 billion forecast despite beating quarterly earnings estimates.
- •Copper reached a new all-time high of $6.75 per pound, up from approximately $5.00 just four months ago, driven by AI infrastructure demand, tariff concerns, and global economic strength.
- •Google shares declined 4% after long-time AI leader Jeff Dean announced his departure to become CEO of Discovery Loop, joined by three other AI team veterans, while Demis Hassabis transitioned from CEO of DeepMind to chair and Alphabet chief scientist.
- •Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, historically among the Fed's most dovish members, voted to hike rates and stated that now is the time to begin gradually raising them to bring inflation back to 2%.
- •ADP employment data showed only 44,000 jobs added in July, well below the 70,000 forecast and down from 98,000 in June, while Citadel's flagship Wellington fund posted its best monthly gain in four years at 5.9%.

AI Bellwether SanDisk Slides on Soft Outlook
Data storage company SanDisk (SNDK) — one of the world's largest NAND flash memory makers, whose products are critical inputs for data center storage infrastructure — easily beat top- and bottom-line estimates in its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report, but its forward guidance disappointed.
First-quarter revenue guidance came in at $10.3–$10.8 billion versus Street forecasts for $10.8 billion, while EPS guidance was $44–$46 against estimates of $45.58. Shares fell 3.7% in after-hours trading, adding to a 5.4% decline during the regular session on Wednesday.
Since being spun out of Western Digital in early 2025, SanDisk had been on a remarkable run, surging more than 50-fold to over $2,300 per share earlier this summer. The stock has since pulled back to $1,315.
Western Digital (WDC) also reported its quarterly results and guidance, topping estimates on both. Shares slipped 9% in after-hours action, however.
Copper Hits New Record High
Copper extended its sharp rally, rising more than 1% to $6.75 per pound — a new all-time high. Veteran traders once dubbed the metal "Dr. Copper" for its reputed ability to signal economic direction.
The surge — copper stood near $5.00 per pound just four months ago — suggests strength in the global economy and persistent inflationary pressure. The metal is also a core input for electrical wiring in data centers and power grids, tying its demand profile to the AI infrastructure buildout underway across the technology sector. Other factors may also be at play, including the threat of import tariffs on copper from President Trump and U.S. consumers rushing to secure supply ahead of any such action, according to Mining.com.
Gold Breaks Out, Rising 4% to $4,317 Per Ounce
After flatlining alongside bitcoin for several weeks, gold caught a significant bid on Wednesday, climbing 4% to $4,317 per ounce — its highest level since mid-June.
The factors benefiting gold — modest U.S. dollar weakness and a slight pullback from recent interest-rate rises — have not spilled over into crypto. Bitcoin edged higher on Wednesday but remained stuck below the $65,000 level, a range it has occupied throughout the summer.
Benchmark Sees Galaxy AI Strategy Paying Off
Benchmark viewed Galaxy Digital's second-quarter results as a turning point for the company's AI infrastructure business, arguing its data center strategy has evolved "from a blueprint to a revenue generating engine." The firm reiterated its Buy rating and $57 price target after Galaxy delivered the first phase of its 15-year CoreWeave (CRWV) lease at the Helios campus in Texas, generating the data center segment's first quarterly profit. CoreWeave is among the largest specialized AI cloud computing providers.
Benchmark also noted that Texas' temporary moratorium on new data center approvals could ultimately strengthen Galaxy's position by favoring developers with secured financing, grid interconnection agreements, and infrastructure commitments over speculative projects.
Google Slides on AI Leadership Shake-Up
Jeff Dean — a Google veteran since 1999 who has helped lead its AI efforts for 15 years — is departing to become CEO of Discovery Loop. Joining him are three other AI team veterans: Oriol Vinyals, Quoc Le, and Sanjay Ghemawat.
Demis Hassabis is stepping down as CEO of Google DeepMind to become chair of that unit as well as chief scientist of Alphabet.
The news sent Google shares from roughly flat to down 4% on the session. The Nasdaq also felt the impact, declining 0.45%.
BofA CEO Brian Moynihan Sticking With Call for Three Fed Rate Hikes This Year
Bank of America, possibly the most hawkish firm on Wall Street at this stage of the cycle, has been calling for three Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026. With no policy change at last week's meeting, the Fed would need to raise rates at all three remaining meetings this year for that call to materialize.
Appearing on CNBC Wednesday morning, CEO Brian Moynihan backed the forecast, citing a strong labor market and inflation that remains too high.
Moynihan also pushed back on concerns about a "K-shaped" economy, saying the bank's data show spending patterns between higher- and lower-income consumers becoming more aligned — a positive signal.
Crypto Lacks Conviction, Says Wintermute
Wintermute said crypto remains mired in a low-conviction trading environment despite a broader risk-on backdrop. The firm argued that bitcoin's inability to reclaim $65,000 — even as spot ETFs attracted $211 million in inflows — suggests the marginal spot buyer lacks conviction.
Compressed implied volatility points to limited expectations for a near-term breakout, with broader market participation likely requiring a pickup in bitcoin volatility.
Although institutional adoption continues to accelerate through tokenization and custody initiatives from Wells Fargo, BNY, and Dinari, Wintermute expects those developments will take time to translate into meaningful capital flows.
Fed's Kashkari: Now Is the Time to Begin Hiking Rates
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari was among three members of the Federal Open Market Committee who voted to hike rates at last week's policy meeting.
Kashkari has historically been among the Fed's most dovish voices, making his shift toward advocating rate hikes a notable signal within the committee.
"[Chairman] Warsh told me to do what I think is right for the economy," Kashkari said in a CNBC interview. "My goal is not to slow the economy, but to bring inflation back down to 2%."
Kashkari argued that now is the time to start slowly moving rates higher.
U.S. ISM Services PMI for July Roughly In Line at 54.1
The ISM Services PMI for July showed the U.S. service sector remaining solidly in expansion mode at 54.1, up marginally from 54.0 in June and roughly in line with expectations of 54.5. The services sector accounts for the majority of U.S. economic output, making the index a closely watched gauge of broader economic momentum. The Prices Paid subindex rose to 70.3 from 67.7 in June.
Circle Falls 3% Pre-Market as Analysts Question ARC Token Boost to 2026 Outlook
Circle, the issuer of USDC — the world's second-largest stablecoin by market capitalization — saw shares decline 3% in pre-market trading after beating on earnings but missing on revenue.
Clear Street said adjusted EBITDA met Wall Street expectations despite a 2% revenue miss, while RLDC margin of 41.2% exceeded forecasts. The firm suggested stronger underlying profitability may have offset headwinds from Coinbase's (COIN) Hyperliquid (HYPE) agreement, and that the core business is "doing better than feared" if expected $160 million in ARC token sales are recognized this year.
Compass Point described the quarter as mixed, saying Circle's higher 2026 guidance was largely driven by non-recurring ARC token pre-sales, while noting continued progress in the Arc blockchain launch, Circle Payments Network, and AI-powered payment products.
TeraWulf's Anthropic Deal Drives AI Infrastructure Push
TeraWulf (WULF) confirmed second-quarter results Tuesday, including its previously announced $19 billion, 20-year data center lease with Anthropic. The deal covers 401 MW of capacity at its Kentucky Justified campus. HPC leasing now accounts for 71% of Q2 revenue. The company has 336 MW under construction at its flagship Lake Mariner site and acquired a gigawatt-scale Kentucky campus in May. Shares were up over 1% in pre-market trading.
ADP Jobs Up Just 44,000 as First Look at July Data Misses Expectations
The ADP Employment Change for July came in at +44,000, down from 98,000 in June and well short of economist forecasts for 70,000.
Markets showed little immediate reaction, with attention focused on Friday's July Nonfarm Payrolls report.
Citadel Posts Best July in Four Years Amid Aschenbrenner Blow-Up
Citadel, one of the world's largest hedge funds, saw its flagship Wellington fund gain 5.9% in July, according to CNBC, its best monthly performance in four years. The fund is now up 12% year-to-date. Citadel's tactical trading fund and equities trading fund each rose by double-digit percentages in July.
A portion of those gains came from Citadel acquiring positions from Situational Awareness, the AI-heavy portfolio run by Leopold Aschenbrenner, as it was unwinding. Those positions rebounded strongly into late July and continued soaring in the first days of August.
SpaceX Extends Post-Earnings Decline to 11%
SpaceX (SPCX) added to its post-earnings losses, declining 11% to $111.80 roughly two hours before the market open.
"We now project capex of nearly $200 billion in both 2027 & 2028, which further pressures free cash flow in 2027, a trend we see across the hyperscalers," said JPMorgan, which lifted its price target to $240 from $225.
"We recognize the upcoming lock-up expiration on Thursday, August 6 of 911.5 million shares, potentially increasing the current float of 639 million shares by 143%, but we also believe there has already been significant pre-positioning ahead of this first expiration, the largest of many over the next several months," the bank added.
DeFi Yields Feed on the Same Uncertainty Everyone Else Is Bracing Against, Curve's Founder Says
The macro fear driving markets sideways is exactly what generates on-chain returns, according to Michael Egorov, founder of Curve Finance and Yield Basis, who believes traders have the Fed's grip on DeFi backwards.
Rate decisions matter less to the ecosystem than people assume, Egorov said in a message to CoinDesk. Higher rates make tokenized Treasury products more attractive, and protocols like Ethena lean on tokenized T-bills for part of their yield, but purely on-chain yield sources become more competitive if the Fed eventually cuts.
Yields can also compound: a pool holding yield-bearing assets can earn the underlying yield and collect trading fees simultaneously.
What matters more is uncertainty itself. It fuels volatility, and volatile markets trade heavily — generating the fees that pay liquidity providers, the users who deposit assets into pools so others can trade against them. Passive yield from lending or T-bills is steady and predictable; fee income from market activity swings fast and climbs when everyone else is nervous.
Egorov's view is that macro anxiety is a feature for DeFi, not a threat, since choppy markets are what liquidity providers harvest. This cuts against the reflex to treat every hawkish Fed signal as a headwind for crypto.
The test will be whether DeFi fee revenue holds up through the next volatile stretch. If protocol earnings rise while token prices chop sideways, Egorov's case that DeFi runs on volatility rather than rate cuts gets its proof.
The Whole Macro Case for BTC Rests on the 10-Year Real Yield, Bitfinex Says
Crypto exchange Bitfinex said bitcoin's (BTC) bullish case hinges on the real — or inflation-adjusted — yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note.
"The 10-year real yield has not stayed above 2.5% since before Bitcoin existed, so there is no price history above that line. It is now at 2.41%, nine basis points below," the exchange said on X.
"Hold above 2.5%, and the macro tailwind is gone," it added.
Bond yields have risen sharply since the onset of the Iran war in late February, weakening the case for risk-taking in financial markets. Yet stocks have continued to notch new record highs, leaving bitcoin and gold far behind.
Zcash Leads the Crypto Market Bounce
Privacy-focused cryptocurrency zcash (ZEC) — which uses zero-knowledge proofs to shield transaction details — led the crypto market higher as bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) struggled to gain upside traction.
ZEC gained nearly 6% in 24 hours, with prices rising 2% since midnight UTC, according to CoinDesk data. BTC and ETH gained just 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively. Other gainers included PUMP, HYPE, and LIT.
Arthur Hayes Says the AI Bubble Is a 2008-Style Credit Blow-Up, and Bitcoin Catches the Bailout
Arthur Hayes believes everyone has miscategorized the AI trade.
In a new essay, the co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX and crypto fund Maelstrom argued that the ongoing infrastructure buildout is a credit story reminiscent of 2008, not an earnings story like the 2000 dot-com bust.
Hyperscalers — computing firms that borrow against massive data centers stuffed with fast-depreciating chips — are being bankrolled by lenders who believe they are financing technology when the underlying asset is closer to real estate.
The break comes when announced capex stops accelerating, which Hayes pegs for late 2027 into 2028. JPMorgan's projection of nearly $200 billion in annual hyperscaler capex across 2027 and 2028 — cited in its SpaceX note — is precisely the kind of spending trajectory Hayes sees as unsustainable. Credit keeps flowing well past that point, the way mortgage lending did into 2007, until the weakest AI debt cracks and drags down whoever is over-levered.
Hayes expects Washington and Beijing to backstop the wreckage in the name of national security, printing more than they did in 2008. That flood of liquidity, he argues, is what will bottom bitcoin and drive it toward $1 million.
His nearer-term call: the recent AI selloff, including Korea's leveraged unwind, is a dip inside a bull market.
Bitcoin traded near $64,200 on Wednesday, flat on the week and still mired in the range it has held since May.