NewsStocksSaia's Tonnage Growth Accelerates in August as Prior-Year Comparisons Ease

Saia's Tonnage Growth Accelerates in August as Prior-Year Comparisons Ease

Author: FreightWaves·

Key Takeaways

  • •Saia's August tonnage rose 8.7% year over year, with daily shipments up 1.1% and weight per shipment up 7.5%, aided by easier prior-year comparisons.
  • •On a two-year-stacked basis, Saia's tonnage growth slowed for a second consecutive month, to 6.5% in August from 8.7% in July.
  • •Saia implemented a 7.1% general rate increase on July 6, 120 basis points higher and three months earlier than its 2024 rate action.
  • •Saia guides to a third-quarter operating ratio of 87.9%, roughly 30 basis points worse year over year, as two overlapping wage increases weigh on costs.
  • •The ISM Manufacturing PMI's new orders subindex fell 3 points to 53.7 in August, a reading that could pressure LTL volumes in the final months of the year.
Saia's Tonnage Growth Accelerates in August as Prior-Year Comparisons Ease

Less-than-truckload carrier Saia posted an acceleration in year-over-year tonnage growth in August, though the improvement came against an easier prior-year comparison than the one it faced in July.

Johns Creek, Georgia-based Saia (NASDAQ: SAIA) reported Thursday an 8.7% year-over-year tonnage increase for August, with daily shipments up 1.1% and weight per shipment jumping 7.5%. The growth rates improved slightly from July's year-over-year figures, aided by more favorable prior-year comparisons.

On a two-year-stacked basis, however, Saia's tonnage growth slowed for a second consecutive month, to +6.5% in August from +8.7% in July. The carrier implemented a 7.1% general rate increase on July 6, which it noted can create some near-term volatility in its metrics. Looking ahead, Saia faces easier prior-year comparisons for the remainder of the year, with the exception of November.

Saia does not disclose revenue-based metrics in its intraquarter updates. The company previously noted, however, that revenue per shipment increased 4% from the beginning to the end of the second quarter. The recent general rate increase was 120 basis points higher and came three months earlier than last year's rate action—another positive indicator. Contractual rate renewals averaged 10.7% in the second quarter, or +15.8% on a two-year-stacked comparison.

Old Dominion's (NASDAQ: ODFL) August update, also released Thursday, showed an acceleration in year-over-year yield growth from July to August, both including and excluding fuel surcharges. The parallel readings from the two largest publicly traded LTL carriers offer a rare real-time window into freight demand in a trucking segment where private operators disclose far less.

Saia reported year-over-year margin improvement in the second quarter for the first time since the first quarter of 2024. Its third-quarter guidance, however, calls for slight year-over-year deterioration. The company typically sees 150 to 200 basis points of margin degradation from the second to the third quarter, but this year it expects only 100 basis points of erosion. The outlook implies an operating ratio of 87.9%, which would be 30 basis points worse year over year, excluding the impact of a real estate gain recorded in the third quarter of 2025. In LTL, where operating ratio—operating expenses divided by revenue—is the standard profitability yardstick, lower is better.

Since 2022, Saia has opened, expanded or relocated roughly 60 terminals, increasing its door count by 25% and transforming it into a national carrier. Those newer locations, however, are operating at a low-90% operating ratio, a drag on the rest of the network, which operates in the low-80s. How quickly those terminals mature toward network-average profitability is a key variable in the company's margin trajectory.

Saia delayed last year's wage increase from July to October, then implemented a new pay hike in July this year, creating an overlapping headwind of two increases that will both weigh on the third quarter. Labor is a major cost line for LTL carriers, which depend far more on dock workers and drivers handling individual shipments than truckload carriers do.

In Thursday trading, SAIA shares were up 2.9% as of 12:26 p.m. EDT, while ODFL shares were off 2.4%. The S&P 500 was up 1%.

The LTL sector had sold off earlier in the week after manufacturing data came in slightly below expectations. The Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing PMI registered 54.6 in August, 60 basis points below consensus and 100 basis points below July's four-year high. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while one below 50 indicates contraction. The index remained in expansion territory for an eighth consecutive month, but the new orders subindex—an indicator of future activity—fell 3 points to 53.7. Carrier tonnage typically lags the index by three months, meaning the softer new orders reading could weigh on LTL volumes into the final months of the year. Shares of publicly traded LTL carriers gapped lower following the Tuesday update, closing the day down between 4% and 7%, while the S&P 500 fell just 0.7%.

Saia is one of only a few publicly traded LTL companies, and its midquarter results provide visibility into a segment of the trucking industry where few public datasets exist.