The S&P 500 finished higher one year after every U.S. midterm election from 1950 through 2022, according to historical market data highlighted by Coin Bureau. Across the 19 midterm election cycles covered, the index averaged a 16.6% increase over the post-midterm measurement window used by BNY, which begins on October 31.

The S&P 500 is a benchmark index of large U.S. companies and is widely used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market, which makes election-cycle statistics of this kind a recurring reference point in market commentary. That the data appeared in digital-asset coverage — Coin Bureau focuses on cryptocurrency markets — reflects the broader practice of using U.S. equity benchmarks as reference points across different corners of market analysis. The figures point to a consistent historical pattern in U.S. equities following midterm elections. The reported performance, however, describes what happened in previous cycles. It does not establish that midterm elections themselves caused the gains, nor does it guarantee a similar outcome in future years.

Historical S&P 500 Performance After Midterms

BNY's measurement of the 19 midterm cycles between 1950 and 2022 showed an average S&P 500 gain of 16.6% over the post-midterm period. The weakest result followed the 2014 midterm elections, when the index rose 3.0%. The strongest performance came after the 1954 midterms, with an increase of 33.6%.

With only 19 observations, the sample is small by statistical standards — a limitation analysts typically keep in view when treating historical averages as reference points rather than forecasts. The comparison spans more than seven decades of market history and includes a wide range of U.S. political and economic environments. Despite the differences between individual election cycles, the historical figures cited by Coin Bureau show that the S&P 500 ended the one-year period higher after each of the 19 midterm elections included in the analysis.

Midterms Outperformed Presidential Elections in Early Returns

Coin Bureau also highlighted a separate CNBC analysis covering 1980 through 2024. That comparison examined stock market performance following midterm and presidential elections across three shorter time frames: one day, one week, and one month.

In the one-day window, the market gained 0.5% after midterm elections, compared with a 0.1% decline after presidential elections. Over one week, midterms were followed by a 1.0% gain, while presidential elections recorded a 0.5% decline. The pattern persisted over one month: the S&P 500 gained 1.5% after midterm elections, versus a 0.8% increase following presidential elections. These early-window figures are small in absolute terms compared with the average one-year gains, where the difference between the two election categories nearly disappears.

One-Year Returns Were Nearly Identical

The longer-term picture showed a much smaller gap between the two election categories. After one year, average gains stood at 13.7% following midterm elections and 13.8% following presidential elections.

That result contrasts with the stronger early returns recorded after midterms in CNBC's analysis. While midterm elections outperformed presidential elections over the one-day, one-week, and one-month periods, the average one-year gains were nearly identical.

The next U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 2026, the cycle that would next add a data point to this type of historical analysis if the same measurement windows are applied.

Taken together, the historical figures present two related but distinct observations: the S&P 500 gained in all 19 post-midterm periods measured by BNY from 1950 through 2022, while CNBC's separate 1980–2024 comparison found that early market gains after midterms were stronger than those following presidential elections.