'War Not Over': Ex-CIA Officer and Former Obama Aide Question Rubio's Iran Threat Memo
Key Takeaways
- •An unclassified memo from Secretary of State Marco Rubio asserts that U.S. intelligence has detected a substantial increase in Iranian efforts to target American diplomats and officials in the Middle East and beyond.
- •Rubio stated that Iran's lethal plotting against U.S. citizens has advanced to serious stages both in the Middle East and in additional countries outside the region.
- •Former Obama administration national security staffer Tommy Vietor argued the leaked memo appears designed to serve as a pretext for a next phase of U.S. military action against Iran.
- •Former CIA officer Marc Polymeropoulos considered the underlying threat assessment credible but questioned the unusual decision to release the memo publicly and route it from the Secretary of State to the Director of National Intelligence.
- •CNN confirmed the memo's legitimacy while raising about why such a communication would be drafted in unclassified form if not solely intended for public release.

A newly disclosed, unclassified memo from Secretary of State Marco Rubio warning of intensified Iranian plotting against U.S. officials is drawing skepticism from former national security officials, who question whether its leak is meant to justify further military action against Iran.
Tommy Vietor, a former national security staffer under President Obama and co-host of "Pod Save America," believes the memo foreshadows justification for more attacks on Iran. Marc Polymeropoulos, a former CIA officer who oversaw clandestine operations in Europe and Eurasia, voiced similar concerns.
His reaction followed a report by Zeteo's Asawin Suebsaeng, who wrote Friday that Trump is already preparing for post-election strikes on Iran. Officials, Suebsaeng said, tell him preparations have ramped up significantly, with a target list now in the works that would include civilian infrastructure.
The memo surfaced as anger grows over a war Trump promised would never happen on his watch, and it seems Rubio may be trying to give the president cover.
Axios reported late Friday night that American officials abroad should beware, because Iran is trying to find ways to kill them, even if they are not near Iran.
The unclassified memo claims that U.S. intelligence discovered Iran has "substantially increased" efforts to target American diplomats and officials in the Middle East and beyond.
"The lethal plotting efforts by the Iranians against U.S. citizens have reached advanced stages in both the Middle East and certain other countries," Rubio said.
Because the memo was unclassified and made public, the dispute is focused less on whether a threat exists than on why the warning was released in that form and at that time. Polymeropoulos said the substance was credible while questioning whether its public release served an operational warning or helped build support for further action.
Vietor was not convinced.
"Zero reason to write this unclassified memo except to then leak it. Sure seems like a pretext for whatever the next phase of US military action will be," he wrote on X Friday evening.
"Stay frosty. War not over," said Polymeropoulos.
He later added: "I have no doubt that this is substantively correct. Iranian terrorist planning is on the rise. Our law enforcement and intelligence community must be on point – in concert with foreign partners. It was curious, however, that this unclassified memo essentially was released to the public. And from SecState to the DNI? (Shouldn't it be other way around?)"
He noted that he was not certain he had ever seen anything like it in overall threat reporting.
"Was this in relation to embassy departures in the region? If so, that's rather dramatic," he wrote. "Threat must be severe-akin to AQAP plots against multiple embassies a decade ago that caused embassy ops closing - but no one leaving (an event in which I helped lead the USG response)."
The final possibility, he said, leaned more toward Vietor's assessment.
"Or, was this unclassified memo designed to increase support for future kinetic activity against Iran? That's a curious move, since the war has mobilized Iranian terrorist planning. Defer to other of my former colleagues if they've seen such a memo from State to the IC, and it's public release (it was unclassified, clearly designed for this to be leaked immediately)," Polymeropoulos wrote.
One person alleged that it could even be a "false flag" operation in the making.
Arta Moeini, managing director of the Institute of Peace and Diplomacy, commented: "Interesting how we didn't see memos like this with former DNI @TulsiGabbard at the helm. Now we have a real-estate donor who is willing to weave 'unclassified' narratives for the admin."
Zachary Cohen, CNN's senior national security reporter, made a similar observation. He wrote that CNN had confirmed the legitimacy of the memo, but had questions of its own.
"Some question as to why this would be communicated from DNI to SecState via this kind of memo, if not solely with intention of public release," he wrote on X.