Bernstein Sees Robinhood Prediction Markets Revenue Reaching $1.7B by 2028
Key Takeaways
- •Bernstein projects Robinhood's prediction markets revenue to reach $1.7 billion by 2028, exceeding the $1.6 billion forecast for its crypto operations in the same year.
- •The projected $100 million gap would place event contracts ahead of Robinhood's crypto segment, which has been a closely watched and volatile revenue source since cryptocurrency trading was introduced in 2018.
- •Robinhood entered the prediction markets sector in late 2024 with election event contracts and subsequently launched a dedicated hub in partnership with exchange platform KalshiEX, covering economics, politics and sports.
- •Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts tied to outcomes of real-world events such as elections, economic data releases and sporting competitions, operating under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight.
- •Trading activity in event contracts surged around the 2024 U.S. presidential election, helping move the format into the U.S. retail mainstream and extending its footprint beyond individual election cycles.
Bernstein Sees Robinhood Prediction Markets Revenue Reaching $1.7B by 2028
Bernstein analysts expect Robinhood Markets (HOOD) to generate $1.7 billion of revenue from prediction markets by 2028, ahead of the $1.6 billion they project from the platform's crypto operations that same year.
The updated forecast, shared with clients on Monday, leaves a $100 million gap between the two business lines — a margin that would place event contracts ahead of what has historically been one of the brokerage's most closely watched and volatile revenue segments. The comparison underscores how quickly the newest addition to Robinhood's product lineup is being measured against a segment that has operated since 2018.
From Niche Product to Retail Mainstream
Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts tied to the outcomes of real-world events such as elections, economic data releases and sporting competitions, with payouts determined by whether the event occurs. The format moved into the U.S. retail mainstream as trading on event contracts expanded under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), with activity surging around 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Robinhood entered the sector by offering election event contracts in late 2024 and subsequently rolled out a dedicated prediction markets hub in partnership with exchange platform KalshiEX, expanding coverage across categories that include economics, politics and sports. With contracts now spanning economic data releases alongside political and sporting events, the category's footprint extends beyond individual election cycles.
Set Against the Crypto Business
Bernstein's projection benchmarks prediction markets against Robinhood's crypto operations, which offer commission-free trading of digital assets including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL). Since the company introduced cryptocurrency trading in 2018, crypto revenue has been among Robinhood's most cyclical income streams, moving with token prices and retail trading volumes.
Robinhood, founded in 2013 and listed on the Nasdaq under the ticker HOOD since its July 2021 initial public offering, has broadened its product lineup from stock and options trading into premium subscriptions, crypto and event contracts, making the composition of its revenue an increasingly tracked metric for analysts covering the company. Markers to watch as the forecast horizon approaches include the CFTC's oversight of event contracts and the cadence of retail engagement across election, economic-data and sporting calendars — the arenas that carried the category into the retail mainstream.
This content was first published on COINOTAG: https://en.coinotag.com/bernstein-robinhood-prediction-markets-revenue-2028
