Former GOP Operative Rick Wilson Predicts Democratic Gains in Midterm Elections
Key Takeaways
- •Rick Wilson, co-founder of The Lincoln Project, predicted that Republicans will suffer notable House losses in the upcoming midterms, though perhaps not reaching forty seats.
- •Wilson argued that Republican candidates who emulate President Trump's style, even in strongly Republican districts, risk losing voter support.
- •He forecasted that the competitive electoral map could expand to include states where Democrats are not expected to perform strongly, specifically citing Michigan as a potential standout for Democrats.
- •Wilson indicated that Democrats could at least achieve a tie in the Senate, an outcome he described as acceptable given current political dynamics.
- •The comments were made during a Substack video discussion with journalist Wajahat Ali titled "Trump and MAGA Double Down on Death and Disaster with Rick Wilson."
A former Republican operative is signaling that the upcoming midterm elections could deliver a major wake-up call for the GOP, with potential losses in both the House and Senate.
Rick Wilson, co-founder of the anti-Trump organization The Lincoln Project, made the remarks during a Substack video conversation with journalist Wajahat Ali. The Lincoln Project, launched ahead of the 2020 election by Republicans and former Republicans opposed to then-President Trump, has since produced campaign-style ads targeting Trump-aligned Republican candidates. Wilson, a longtime Republican strategist who worked on races at the statewide and national level before breaking with the party over its alignment with President Donald Trump, outlined how Republicans may soon confront a shifting electoral landscape. Midterm cycles historically pose challenges for the party holding the White House, and Wilson's assessment suggests he believes that pattern could intensify under current conditions.
"They're going to get blown out in the House," Wilson said. "Now, is it going to be a 40-seat blowout? It's probably not. The other redistricting s--- has given them a few of those seats. But I think you're going to see a lot of seats that are going to end up being much bigger."
Wilson predicted that the competitive map could broaden in ways that surprise observers. "You're going to see some real surprises as the map expands," he said. "You're going to see some states where the Democrats have no business performing like they do. And I'm going to take a very counterfactual point from a lot of establishment folks right now. I think El-Sayed is going to blow it out in Michigan."
A backlash against Trump, along with GOP leaders who have backed him, could accelerate that shift, Wilson argued. He suggested that Republican candidates who emulate the president's style risk alienating voters.
"People who have decided they're going to imitate Trump, even in very red states and districts, and try to be a mini-Trump, eventually run into a wall," Wilson said.
"They're going to ride Trump all the way down," he added.
Regarding the Senate, Wilson acknowledged uncertainty but suggested the outcome may be more favorable to Democrats than many in the GOP are willing to concede.
"I'm not going to say that we're going to get it, but we're going to tie it. And I'll take a tie ballgame at this point," he said.
The full discussion, titled "Trump and MAGA Double Down on Death and Disaster with Rick Wilson," is available as a recording from Rick Wilson and THE LEFT HOOK with Wajahat Ali's live video on Substack.
