In an opinion column published by Alternet, Robert Reich, a professor of public policy at Berkeley and former U.S. secretary of labor, argues that a series of recent polls and shifting behavior among Republican politicians and conservative media figures point to weakening support for President Donald Trump just over five weeks before the midterm elections — votes that will determine all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and roughly one-third of the Senate. At the same time, he warns that billionaire-funded campaign advertising and potential interference with the election remain serious concerns.

Reich opens the column by describing himself as "nauseously optimistic" about the vote.

Among the indicators he cites is last week's New York Times/Siena University poll, which found that the share of Republicans who say the economy is better than a year ago has collapsed from over 70 percent in January to 29 percent in September.

A second data point comes from a Wall Street Journal poll, which put Trump's at just 37 percent of Americans — the lowest rating of any president heading into a midterm election in Journal polls dating to 1990.

Reich also points to reporting that Republicans in tight races are beginning to tiptoe away from Trump because of what he calls the president's unpopular war, his tariffs, and their effect on prices. In recent days, Maine Senator Susan Collins and Kansas Senator Roger Marshall have distanced themselves from Trump on tariff policies they say hurt small businesses and rural communities in Maine and aircraft production in Kansas. Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts has questioned whether consumers would see lower prices from Trump's decision to temporarily allow more foreign beef imports into the United States, a move that is opposed by ranchers. All three senators are seeking reelection this year.

In the House, seven Republicans — including a group facing difficult reelection races — joined Democrats this past week in passing a war powers measure directing Trump to remove U.S. forces from hostilities against Iran unless Congress authorizes the war.

Reich notes that Republicans are also uneasy with Trump's refusal to regulate artificial intelligence, data centers, or even Flock Safety cameras, which he says most Americans now oppose.

He describes one trend as particularly striking: mentions of Trump's name per hour on conservative podcasts have fallen nearly 70 percent from their peak in the run-up to the 2024 election, according to tracking reported by the Wall Street Journal. Monthly mentions of his name have fallen 30 percent since the United States launched the war in late February.

Despite those signs, Reich writes that his "stomach churns" over the vast amounts of money from right-wing billionaires — he points to Elon Musk — now being poured into key races to finance a barrage of ads favoring Republican candidates that he says make things up about Democrats and progressives.

His stomach also aches, he writes, over what Trump and "his regime" may try — and have already tried — to do to interfere with elections and further erode public trust in them. On Friday, for example, the Supreme Court lifted restrictions on a federal voter database pushed by Trump. Reich adds that the administration refuses to rule out sending ICE agents to polling places.

Reich closes with a call for readers to spend the next five weeks phoning, writing, canvassing, getting out the vote, and, to the extent they can, funding candidates who will help average working Americans. "Yes, money talks, and Trump is a vicious dictator," he writes, but "there are far more of us than there are Trump's billionaires" to do the talking, organizing, and mobilizing — and, in his view, far more people to guard the electoral system. He argues that his side represents "the people seeking the common good rather than the corporate and techno-billionaires seeking additional wealth and power for themselves," and asks readers: "How do you feel?" Those measures — polling on the economy, Trump's approval, Republicans' positioning in tight races, and conservative podcast mentions — are the data points to track over the remaining weeks before Election Day.

Reich is a professor of public policy at Berkeley and former secretary of labor. His writings can be found at