NewsStocksReddit Heads Into Earnings With Strong Ad Growth and Google Licensing Risk

Reddit Heads Into Earnings With Strong Ad Growth and Google Licensing Risk

Author: Coincentral·

Key Takeaways

  • Analysts expect second-quarter revenue of $731 million, up 46.3% from a year earlier, and GAAP earnings of $0.97 per share.
  • Reddit’s first-quarter revenue rose 69% to $663.4 million, while net income reached $204 million and free cash flow was $311.2 million.
  • Advertising was the main driver of first-quarter performance, with ad revenue increasing 74% to $625 million.
  • The company is renegotiating a Google content licensing deal valued at roughly $60 million per year.
  • Alphabet’s second-quarter ad revenue rose 14%, which suggests the broader digital advertising market remains supportive for Reddit.
Reddit Heads Into Earnings With Strong Ad Growth and Google Licensing Risk

Reddit reports second-quarter earnings on July 30 after market close, with Wall Street expecting another period of rapid growth as the company faces an important dispute with Google over content licensing.

Reddit, Inc. (RDDT) is trading at $179.23 ahead of the release, down 20% year to date after a sharp January selloff. Even so, the stock remains up more than 400% since its 2024 initial public offering.

Analysts are looking for second-quarter revenue of $731 million, which would represent 46.3% year-over-year growth. They also expect GAAP earnings of $0.97 per share, more than double the $0.45 reported in the same quarter last year.

The company delivered a strong first quarter, posting 69% revenue growth to $663.4 million. Net income reached $204 million, while free cash flow totaled $311.2 million.

Advertising remained the main driver of that performance. Ad revenue rose 74% to $625 million in the first quarter, while ad impressions increased about 32% and average pricing rose by a similar amount.

Management guided for second-quarter revenue of $715 million to $725 million and adjusted EBITDA of $285 million to $295 million. A result above that range would extend the company’s recent pattern of combining rapid top-line growth with improving profitability, which is what investors have been watching as Reddit continues to prove out its monetization model.

User growth also remained solid in the first quarter. Daily active users reached 126.8 million, up 17% from a year earlier. International weekly active users grew 33%, compared with 10% growth domestically.

Monetization, however, still differs sharply between markets. Average revenue per international user was $2.02, compared with $9.63 in the U.S., leaving room for improvement as Reddit expands translation tools and local content.

Google licensing dispute

The most closely watched issue ahead of Thursday’s report is Reddit’s ongoing dispute with Google over content licensing. The companies have been renegotiating a deal worth roughly $60 million per year.

Reddit is reportedly seeking a usage-based fee structure. The company has been frustrated that Google’s AI Overviews direct users to Google’s own summaries rather than back to Reddit’s platform.

Reddit shares fell 9% in a single session last week after The Wall Street Journal reported that the company had considered cutting off Google’s access to its content entirely.

Investors are likely to focus on this relationship during the earnings call because Reddit’s data has become more important as search and AI products increasingly surface summarized answers alongside original sources. A new agreement could add meaningful high-margin licensing revenue, while a breakdown could hurt both licensing income and organic search traffic.

Ad market remains supportive

Alphabet reported 14% ad revenue growth in the second quarter, a sign that the broader digital advertising market remains healthy. That provides a constructive backdrop for Reddit’s own report.

Ads accounted for about 94% of Reddit’s first-quarter revenue. That concentration remains a risk if ad demand weakens, but current industry data points in the right direction.

Reddit has also typically issued conservative guidance, which has made it more likely to beat expectations.

Wall Street currently rates RDDT a Moderate Buy. Over the past three months, analysts have issued 13 Buy ratings, 8 Hold ratings, and no Sell ratings. The average price target is $226.29, which implies about 26% upside from current levels.

Reddit’s second-quarter results are due after market close on July 30.