Red Sea Risks Could More Than Double Sailing Distance for Yanbu Crude, Clarksons Says
Key Takeaways
- •Clarksons Research said renewed Red Sea threats could more than double voyage distances for Saudi crude shipments from Yanbu.
- •Yemen’s Houthi group claimed attacks on two Saudi-linked tankers last week, the first such Red Sea incidents this year.
- •Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz averaged about 13 crossings per day last week, around 90% below pre-conflict levels, while crude exports through the strait fell to about 2 million bpd.
- •VLCC traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb has dropped to one vessel per day, down from an average of three per day in the second quarter.
- •Clarksons estimated that rerouting 50% of Yanbu’s exports to Asia could raise global crude tanker tonne-mile demand by about 5%, supporting freight rates and bunker fuel demand.
Renewed security threats in the Red Sea could more than double voyage distances for Saudi crude shipments from Yanbu, according to Clarksons Research.
The warning comes as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains about 90% below pre-conflict levels, keeping pressure on global tanker markets, Steve Gordon, global head of Clarksons Research, said in an emailed report on Monday. That matters because the Gulf route still handles a large share of Middle East crude flows, so any additional disruption can force tankers onto longer and less efficient sailings.
Yemen's Houthi group claimed attacks on two Saudi-linked tankers last week, the first such incidents in the Red Sea this year.
Clarksons Research said VLCC traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb has since fallen to just one vessel per day, down from an average of three per day during the second quarter.
Meanwhile, vessel traffic through Hormuz averaged just 13 crossings per day over the past week, while crude exports through the strait fell to about 2 million bpd, down from 15 million bpd before the conflict.
Hormuz saw just 13 daily transits last week, 90% below pre-conflict levels.
As crude exports shifted away from the Gulf, Yanbu shipped an average of 3.8 million bpd over the past week, around 3 million bpd above normal.
However, Clarksons warned that an extended avoidance of the Bab el-Mandeb could also disrupt this alternative route, underscoring how routing changes can ripple through tanker availability, voyage times and fuel use even when cargoes are not delayed outright.
For cargoes bound for Asia, a tanker sailing from Yanbu to China would need to travel about 15,000 nautical miles via the Cape of Good Hope if avoiding the Gulf of Aden, compared with roughly 6,700 nautical miles on the direct route.
Clarksons estimates that rerouting 50% of Yanbu's exports to Asian markets could increase global crude tanker tonne-mile demand by around 5%, supporting freight rates.
Average VLCC earnings rose 13% week on week to $145,000/day, while Suezmax and Aframax earnings reached $167,000/day and $130,000/day, respectively.
Longer voyages could also lift global bunker fuel demand. Global bunker supplier and trader Peninsula previously warned that renewed Red Sea diversions would tighten bunker fuel supply as ships spend more time sailing around the Cape of Good Hope.