The week ended after a thirteenth consecutive night of American strikes, and for the first time since the conflict began, the affected map widened. Yemen’s Houthis hit two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and threatened to blockade the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a route Saudi barrels had been using to move around a closed Hormuz. Roughly six million barrels of oil and refined products transit the Bab al-Mandab daily, meaning the market now confronts two major chokepoints under simultaneous threat.

Washington responded by warning of military punishment if further attacks on shipping occur and raised the prospect of charging the damage against frozen Iranian assets. Both sides ruled out near-term talks. Asked about a ceasefire, President Trump said Iran needs “more of the same.” A war that had spent months centered on one strait has now expanded its maritime reach.

Crude prices reacted as additional chokepoints came into focus. Brent moved above USD 100 on Thursday for the first time since May, before easing to USD 97.63 by Friday. WTI was near USD 89.77, leaving crude roughly ten percent higher for the week.

A third front also emerged more quietly in the Black Sea. Drone attacks on tankers loading at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on July 17, 19, and 21 stopped operations and forced Kazakhstan to cut production. Kazakhstan routes about four-fifths of its exports through the terminal, which has no comparable alternative outlet; previous CPC disruptions have quickly tightened Kazakh supply. Asian buyers, meanwhile, have begun pricing Saudi crude shipments through the Suez Canal and around the Cape of Good Hope, routes associated historically with 1869 and, more recently, the Ever Given’s brief obstruction of the Suez Canal. A Cape diversion adds roughly two weeks to a typical Middle East-to-Europe voyage.

Freight markets, which had largely ignored the war last week, spent this week overlooking their own rally. The Baltic Dry Index fell more than six percent last week to 2,752 and continued lower, touching 2,671 on Monday, its lowest level since July 2. The Capesize index declined 5.6% and then another 5.1% to 3,889, pressured by softer iron ore and coal enquiry and improving vessel availability.

The Supramax index moved in the opposite direction, rising to 1,738, its highest level since August 2022. Last week’s edition said cargo fundamentals were winning the argument “for another week.” The market appeared to take that timing literally. Softer Capesize earnings mark the first real push toward the beach — the shipbreaking yards of South Asia that dominate global vessel demolition — in months; the difficulty now is less the intention to exit than the routes available to get there.

The economic data calendar brought no new inflation figures. June readings, from Washington’s 3.5% to Karachi’s 11.1%, remain the relevant benchmarks until August, now set against an oil price that spent Thursday above USD 100. The TCMB filled the gap by holding rates at 37% for a fourth consecutive meeting, keeping Turkey’s policy rate among the highest of any major economy.

Currencies carried the week’s message instead. USD/INR touched 96.88 on Thursday, near May’s record of 96.97, before recovering toward 96.50. The Taka held at 123.35. The Lira reached fresh records near 47.35. The Pakistani Rupee closed near 278.40, again moving within a quarter-rupee range. At this stage, the rate is behaving less like an exchange rate than a physical constant.

In Bangladesh, the death toll from this month’s flooding has climbed to 57 confirmed fatalities, most of them in Cox’s Bazar, including thirteen Rohingya refugees. More than one million people were affected at the peak of the flooding. The waters are now receding: shelters have been consolidated to 111, relief allocations continue to move, and forecasters are monitoring river basins rather than the sky. Recovery, rather than rescue, has become the main focus.

Commercial activity in Chattogram is also beginning to revive. Port operations have largely normalized, and a threatened 48-hour container transport strike was both announced and withdrawn within the same week, resolved through discussion rather than prolonged disruption. The week’s clearest lesson came from compliance: a tanker was sanctioned after arrival and after clearances had been completed, leaving it caught between anchorage and beach — an illustration of how sanctions designation can outrun the operational timeline of a voyage. Across the basin, appetite has shifted firmly toward bulkers and units with clean histories.

The war has opened another front at sea just as the weather has closed its front on land. The beach is drying out in time to receive what can pass through. The market remains paused, not broken. Ships continue to wait for passage, while the yards, at last, are waiting only for the tide.

For Week 30 of 2026, GMS Market Rankings / Vessel indications are as below.

Source: GMS, Inc.