In American politics, the simplest explanation is often the most persuasive. That help explain why some Republicans are breaking with Donald Trump so suddenly and so publicly—including Republicans from ruby-red states and districts.

The likely explanation is diesel.

The price of diesel reached $6 a gallon for the first time two Fridays ago. Since then, each new day has set another record. The national average was $5.57 a gallon at the same time last month, according to AAA. It was $6.23 last week and $6.52 on Tuesday.

Economist Paul Krugman described the situation in a post:

“Diesel is currently selling at more than $200 a barrel. It’s true that there is always a ‘crack spread’ between crude and diesel, but it’s typically on the order of $20. So the price of diesel is currently roughly what we would normally expect with crude at around $190.”

For readers unfamiliar with the term: the crack spread is the difference between what refiners pay for a barrel of crude and what they receive for the refined products, such as diesel, made from it.

At that pace, the national average could reach $7 by the end of next week. It has already reached that level in Hawaii, according to Newsweek, while prices in California are approaching $8.

The US economy is complicated, but diesel prices are drawing the attention of a particularly important Republican constituency: middle-aged, white, working-class men who might otherwise be expected to remain firmly loyal to Trump. Some are now reconsidering that support.

“This truck is gonna sit and rot now until this idiot president is out of office,” a Trump supporter said in a viral video. “I voted for him and I’m so sorry I voted for him.” He added, “I never thought I would say this—I miss Joe Biden.”

The speed of the Republican response has been striking. Just last month, the Republican National Committee warned candidates against distancing themselves from Trump. Natalie Baldassarre of the RNC told Politico in August that Trump was “the biggest turnout machine for mid- to low-propensity voters” and that Republicans needed those voters to go to the polls.

“If members are choosing to keep an arm’s length from the president, they risk alienating their base [and] they risk 15 to 20 percent of their key Republican voters not turning out,” Baldassarre said.

Her message changed by Sunday.

“We encourage candidates to run the races they need to run to best represent the voters,” she told Politico. “The president understands when candidates need to add nuance.”

What explains the change? Diesel is one likely answer.

Jackson Karki, a campaign staffer for Mike Rogers, the Republican Senate candidate in Michigan, did not specifically cite diesel when describing his frustration. But last Thursday—the fifth consecutive day on which diesel prices had broken records—Karki wrote, “Very, very bleak.”

He suggested that the war was responsible, saying, “the vibes on the ground are the worst I’ve seen in my life. No one wants to promote candidates, no one wants to knock doors, no one wants to do s---. Attendance for any rightwing event is at all time lows anywhere I go. Thank you Donald Trump for ruining it for us ... and handing the country over to socialism.”

Karki’s comments were published in an X post, with a related post also documenting the reaction.

Karki is not alone in blaming the president. Rogers released an advertisement on Monday implying that the war was driving food prices higher. “The war has to end and end quickly,” he said in a post on X.

Rogers followed the example of Ashley Hinson, the Republican Senate candidate in Iowa. Hinson said, “Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran. We need to use every option at our disposal to provide some relief from high prices.” Her statement was posted on X.

Both candidates had previously supported Trump’s war policy. When the war began, Rogers said, “Iran has waged war against the United States for 47 years. Iran is an imminent threat to our country and must not have a nuclear weapon.” Hinson took a similar position. In Congress, she voted six times—including last week—against House resolutions that would have ended the war.

What changed their minds? Both are now focusing on diesel and the broader cost of the conflict.

Diesel occupies a distinctive place in American politics. Unlike gasoline, its price is closely connected to the interests of white working-class workers and business owners in agriculture, transportation, construction and manufacturing. These groups are not necessarily highly active online or driven by ideology, but their livelihoods are deeply tied to the economy.

Republicans regard them as part of the broad political middle and often describe them as “real Americans.” When they become angry, Republican candidates pay attention.

Higher diesel prices also affect the cost of transporting goods and producing food. Because so much of what Americans buy—groceries, building materials, farm equipment—travels at some stage in a diesel-powered truck, tractor or freight train, sustained increases at the pump tend to work through supply chains into the prices consumers see. However, the argument here is not simply that Republicans are reacting to higher food prices. The timing suggests that the political pressure is increasing diesel prices set new records.

That pressure may help explain why other prominent Republicans are creating distance from Trump. Byron Donalds, the Republican congressman running for governor of Florida, removed references to Trump from his campaign website after previously highlighting the president’s endorsement in Trump’s home state. The homepage had asked supporters to “Chip in to Support Trump Endorsed Byron Donalds.” That language is no longer on the site, as reported by the Miami Herald and Raw Story.

Affordability may be part of the explanation, but the timing points specifically to diesel prices.

Republicans may want the war to end, but Trump’s ability to do so may be limited, at least until the midterm elections. Iran is tightening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, restricting oil flows, and has expanded the conflict to include US allies. The Iran-backed Houthi militia destroyed an east-west pipeline in Saudi Arabia that had been used to bypass the strait. Ukraine has also been targeting diesel facilities in Russia.

Reuters reported that Middle Eastern diesel exports had been cut in half while diesel inventories in Europe had reached record lows. Those figures describe a market with little slack, and they frame what to watch from here: the daily AAA readings, the standoff around the Strait of Hormuz, and whether more candidates follow Rogers, Hinson and Donalds in publicly keeping their distance.

The political consequences are becoming more visible. “Polls for Republicans are just getting worse by the day in a way that isn’t actually all that common in midterms,” pollster Nate Silver said in an X post. Silver speculated that gas prices or artificial intelligence could be contributing factors. The more immediate explanation may be diesel.

The country could be approaching a tipping point, similar to the period during the pandemic when a crisis could no longer be contained. For Republicans, diesel could become to 2026 what COVID-19 was to 2020—only much worse.

Additional coverage and related posts: X, Bluesky.

Source: Alternet.