Economists are warning that fuel costs driven upward by President Donald Trump's war against Iran could touch nearly every corner of daily life, from grocery bills to public transportation. In Rutherford County, Tennessee, the squeeze has reached the school run: local bus contractors say higher diesel prices may soon bring school buses to a halt.

According to Chris Nalls of WTVC NewsChannel 9 in Chattanooga, the school system there "says families should not expect a change in bus service right now." But contractors who operate buses for Rutherford County Schools — as reported by Nashville's WSMV and The Tennessee Holler — are warning that if diesel prices keep rising, they may not be able to afford to keep the buses on the road.

WSMV reported: "All of us are feeling the pinch at the top. But school bus contractors here in Rutherford County who rely on diesel to fill their busses up say if they don't get help from the school board, they're going to be left with no choice but to park for good."

Sandra Davis, a school bus contractor in the county, told the station, "You can't put fuel in it, you can't run … We've gotta do what we do to put diesel in the bus to get kids to school." Davis said she and her husband, who runs the contracting company with her, are struggling badly because of diesel prices.

The Tennessee Holler amplified the contractors' concerns in a post on X: "RUTHERFORD COUNTY: 'You can’t put fuel in it, you can't run.' @rucoschools school bus contractors say they may have to stop running because diesel costs too much — Because of Trump's pointless war."

The financial toll on the district could be substantial. Per Nalls, soaring diesel prices "could cost Rutherford County Schools an additional $250,000 to $300,000, according to the school system."

"Rutherford County Schools relies largely on individual bus owners to transport students," Nalls explains. "Those drivers are paid through an agreement that adjusts their pay when fuel prices rise above a set level. For diesel, that starting point is $4 a gallon. School officials say diesel is now averaging around $6 a gallon. 'When diesel goes above that amount, drivers receive more money to help cover the cost of getting students to and from school,' the school system said."

Fuel-escalation clauses like that one are designed to share fuel-price risk between a district and the individual operators who own and fuel their own buses. In Rutherford County, the mechanism is now doing precisely that: with diesel running well above the $4-a-gallon trigger, the cost of the surge is shifting from the contractors' pockets to the school system's budget.

James Evans of Rutherford County Schools told WTVC, "Our budget department tells us that this may cost us $250,000 to $300,000, just depending on how long the fuel prices stay high like this. It won't affect bus service. We'll continue to offer bus service, but it will affect how much it costs us."

Two variables now frame the situation, according to the district and its contractors alike: how long diesel stays above the $4-a-gallon trigger, and whether the school board provides the help operators say they need to avoid parking their buses for good.

Trump carried Tennessee in three presidential elections in a row.