Steven Rattner's 'Morning Joe' Charts Point to 2006-Style GOP 'Bloodbath' in 2026 Midterms
Key Takeaways
- •Steven Rattner presented comparative charts on 'Morning Joe' suggesting current conditions mirror 2006, when the president's party lost 31 House and six Senate seats, ahead of 2026 elections featuring all 435 House seats and roughly one-third of the Senate.
- •Inflation-adjusted gasoline prices have reached about $4.35 per gallon under Trump, exceeding the roughly $3.69 level under Bush in 2006, while real wage gains of roughly 2.2 percent under Bush have given way to wages that fell and later flatlined under Trump.
- •Inflation is running at nearly twice the 1.4 percent recorded under Bush, job growth has stagnated after strong hiring in 2006, economic growth is lower, and interest rates are higher than in 2006.
- •Presidential approval on election day stood at 37 percent for Trump versus 38 percent for Bush in 2006, and consumer sentiment has dropped to 48 from 92, which Rattner described as among the worst readings ever recorded.
- •Rattner acknowledged that even strong polls have missed at times over the past decade and that turnout remains a prediction until votes are cast, framing his charts as a direct gauge of the electorate's mood.
Investor and former journalist Steven Rattner presented a series of charts on Thursday's "Morning Joe" that he argued point to serious trouble for the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections, according to a report from Alternet.
The midterms are drawing comparisons to 2006, when President George W. Bush's party suffered heavy losses and Democrats won control of the House of Representatives for the first time during his presidency — a shift that handed the opposition the power to set the chamber's agenda. In that election, Democrats gained 31 House seats and six Senate seats. The 2026 elections will follow the same structure: all 435 House seats and roughly one-third of the Senate will be on the ballot in November, and the party holding the White House has historically lost House seats in most midterm elections since World War II.
Rattner acknowledged that even the strongest polls have missed at times over the past decade, and that turnout — the most important number in any election — remains only a prediction until votes are actually cast. His charts, he suggested, capture the mood of the electorate more directly.
Rattner began with the conditions surrounding Bush in 2006. The United States was then fighting wars in Afghanistan and Iraq — the latter launched on intelligence that later proved false — at enormous cost, and federal deficits were piling up again just a few years after the budget had been balanced. Bush was also grappling with elevated gasoline prices, which Hurricane Katrina pushed even higher.
"He had a war. He had Hurricane Katrina, which also added to gas prices. And so for most of his second term up to this point, gas prices were higher than they have been for Trump," Rattner said.
Adjusted for inflation, gasoline had cost more under Bush than under Trump until recently. The chart put inflation-adjusted prices at about $3.69 a gallon under Bush, versus roughly $4.35 per gallon under Trump.
"So in fact, they're facing a worse gas price situation than they were in 2006," he said.
The wage picture has moved in the opposite direction. What helped Bush was that wages largely kept up with rising costs; under Trump, that has not happened.
"You can see that Trump actually was performing better on wages for the first year and a half of this term. Bush actually was underwater, so to speak. Wages were not keeping up with inflation. Of course, we know that even when wages are going up, the people at the bottom are being left behind and it's much worse for them," Rattner added.
When gasoline prices began to moderate under Bush, real wages and purchasing power rose as well. Under Trump, prices — gasoline included — have climbed while wages have held steady. "Voters are looking at no real wage increases under Trump. They were looking at about two and a half, 2.2 percent under Bush," he said. Wages actually fell under Trump before flatlining in recent months.
"And life is becoming completely unaffordable for a growing number of people every day," co-host Mika Brzezinski said.
Broader economic indicators show a similar contrast. Inflation stood at 1.4 percent under Bush, and it is almost twice that under Trump. Unemployment was only slightly higher in 2006 — by 0.2 percentage points — but the economy was then adding jobs at a significant rate, while job growth under Trump has stagnated. Overall economic growth is also lower now than it was under Bush, and interest rates are higher under Trump than they were in 2006.
Presidential popularity follows a comparable pattern. Bush won reelection with about 50 percent of the vote, a level Trump has not reached during his second term.
"But by the time you get to election day, they're actually almost exactly identical. Bush at 38 percent, Trump at 37 percent. But Bush came down just at the very end, so very similar in popularity," Rattner said.
Consumer confidence completes the picture. Rattner described current readings as "some of the worst consumer sentiment ratings that we have ever seen." The measure stood at 92 on election day in 2006, compared with just 48 under Trump.
"So when you ask consumers, how do they feel about life? How do they feel about the economy? How do they feel about their purchasing power? You have an enormous disparity between Bush and Trump," he concluded.
