Vladimir Putin may be President Donald Trump's favorite dictator, but according to a new analysis from The i Paper, the Russian leader is "making a fool of Trump again" — and this time, the dynamic appears poised to contribute to Trump and the GOP's struggles in the upcoming midterm elections.

Longtime Washington, D.C., correspondent Simon Marks published the analysis for the outlet on Sunday, examining how far Trump's special diplomatic envoy, Steve Witkoff, went in his "gushing" praise of Putin during a recent visit.

"Thank you so much for having us," Witkoff said, placing a hand to his heart. "When we retire, we'll have all these incredible stories and incredible memories, and yours will be right at the top of it all."

Later in the visit, Putin remarked that the "situation is difficult" — a comment Marks suggested could have referred either to his war with Ukraine, which Witkoff and Jared Kushner were ostensibly there to help negotiate an end to, or to the upcoming U.S. midterms, which are widely expected to go poorly for Trump and the GOP. The midterms have historically been difficult for the party holding the White House, and with control of Congress at stake, the lack of a diplomatic breakthrough carries added political weight for Republicans heading into November.

"Perhaps the Russian leader meant both, knowing that he and America's voters are equally likely to give Trump short shrift in the days and weeks ahead," Marks wrote. He added: "Nothing emerged publicly from Saturday's meeting to suggest any kind of breakthrough, even though the White House described the talks with Putin as making 'substantive plans for next steps' that will only be revealed in 'coming weeks.' That suggests no effort by Putin to provide Trump with the immediate lifeboat he is seeking to end the Ukraine war in time for America's midterms. With the US war on Iran also unresolved, Trump and his fellow Republicans remain set to traverse the election campaign without any significant achievements to trumpet regarding either conflict."

Putin, Marks further explained, has been playing Trump, Witkoff, and Kushner "like a violin" throughout the negotiations, "raising hopes of some kind of possible breakthrough, and then gleefully dashing them sometimes hours later." The pattern reflects Moscow's long-standing negotiating posture in the war, which began with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022: Russian officials have repeatedly engaged in talks while continuing military operations and maintaining maximalist territorial demands, a dynamic that also frustrated prior Western diplomatic efforts.

During the 2024 campaign, Trump claimed that if reelected he could end the war in Ukraine within a matter of days, citing his good relationship with Putin. The reality since then has been markedly different. The Russian leader has proven unwilling to concede any advantage to his adversaries through diplomatic compromise, continuing to demand the surrender of Ukrainian territories to Russia as a condition for ending the conflict.

Caught between this quagmire and the one in Iran, Trump and the GOP have been left with little or nothing to show voters on the promise to end costly foreign wars. With the White House saying further steps will be revealed only in the "coming weeks," the next indications of whether the negotiations produce any movement — or continue the cycle of raised and dashed expectations — are likely to surface publicly in the run-up to the midterms.

"'Incredible stories and incredible memories' will indeed abound," Marks concluded. "But most of them may be told by the Russians, as they explain to their friends and loved ones how they toyed with Trump and his representatives like a cat with a mouse, and kept slaughtering Ukrainians with impunity."

Source: The i Paper