Privacy coins stole the spotlight in an otherwise motionless crypto market, with Zcash and Monero posting the strongest gains among the largest digital assets over the past 24 hours while Bitcoin and Ethereum barely budged.

Bitcoin changed hands at $86,264.06, up just 0.59% over 24 hours, while Ethereum sat at $2,714.39, up a marginal 0.34%. The total crypto market capitalization stood just north of $3 trillion, essentially flat for the day, according to CoinGecko data.

After weeks of Bitcoin turning heads and climbing the charts, the top of the market is now barely moving. The rest of the 12 largest coins drifted in much the same way: Solana gained 1.4% and XRP added 1.07%, while BNB slipped 0.41% and Tron lost 0.22%.

Privacy Coins Break From the Pack

Privacy coins are digital assets built to obscure on-chain details such as sender and recipient addresses and transaction amounts—Monero applies that shielding to every transaction by default, while Zcash users can opt into "shielded" transactions secured by zero-knowledge proofs. Zcash, perhaps the best-known privacy coin, has been on a tear over the past year and was up 3% on the day, recovering from a pullback off its recent peak near $1,600. Monero, meanwhile, climbed 2.14% to $562.32 over the last 24 hours, making the two privacy-focused assets the standout performers of the session.

The daily charts reveal how the two moves differ. Zcash is up 2.62% on Binance since the day's candle opened, indicating its advance is still running. Monero is riding a spike that began yesterday and carried on through the past 24 hours. Either way, the privacy sector's relative strength stands in sharp contrast to the listless price action across the rest of the top 12.

Macro Keeps the Market Pinned

The flat tape across the broader market has a clear macro explanation. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept. 16, its first hike since July 2023. The September jobs report then landed with only 29,000 new against the 84,000 that economists had expected, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%.

That weak print cut the odds of an October hike to about 22% immediately after the release, according to CME FedWatch. A reduced likelihood of further rate increases is generally a positive for risk assets, so the September hike combined with sinking odds of another amounts to essentially a wash—hence the flat market.

Bitcoin, however, continues to show bullish momentum. Yesterday, it flashed a second golden cross, with its 100-day exponential moving average crossing above the 200-day—a formation chart watchers often treat as a gauge of longer-term momentum. Still, the asset remains below resistance at $87,354—even the most sustained bull runs need time to breathe.

A Green Day Is Not a Trend Reversal for ZEC

There is a caveat on Zcash. One day of buying does not close the gap to its highs: ZEC still trades about 19% below its late-September high of $1,698.

Zcash slid to $1,333.50 intraday on Oct. 1 as Grayscale's Zcash ETF, a fund that gives investors exposure to ZEC without requiring them to hold the token directly, lost $30.25 million in outflows on Sept. 30. Even after that withdrawal, the fund has pulled in roughly $268 million in net inflows since its launch on Aug. 25.

Zoom out, and Zcash is very much its own story. The coin has gained about 2,500% over the past 12 months and shows no sign of a serious trend reversal. Its latest leg was a 253% climb from a $480.72 base to the $1,698 high in late September. That run coincided with two major events: the debut of Grayscale's Zcash ETF on Aug. 25, and a Sept. 17 vote in which coinholders backed, with 98.9% support, keeping Bitcoin-style halvings—the scheduled issuance cuts that steadily slow the creation of new coins—and keeping the coin's inflation in check.

A cooldown is not out of character for the coin. ZEC dropped 38% when the Ironwood counterfeiting scare hit earlier this year, then recovered past $1,600. Measured against that drawdown, the current slide of about 19% from the September high is comparatively mild.

Monero in a Similar Spot

Monero is in much the same position. XMR trades about 11% below its September high of $632.86, and its market capitalization stands at $10.57 billion—less than half of Zcash's $23.18 billion.

Based on the daily charts, both privacy coins are in consolidation rather than breakout. On Zcash's daily chart, price sits at $1,372.69, stuck just under a resistance zone at $1,403.89, measured from the $451.75 low to the $1,698 high. Today's high of $1,385 fell short of the level. The 38.2% retracement at $1,221.93 lies below as the next marker.

A faster gauge tells a different story for Monero: the indicator is deep in overbought territory—a reading that flags stretched short-term momentum—even as price action remains more constrained, with XMR trading sideways since late September.

Levels to Watch

In the near term, Bitcoin needs to clear $87,354, Zcash faces resistance at $1,403.89 overhead, and Monero must keep holding above $558.69.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.