NewsStocksPrediction Markets Favor Nvidia Insider Ian Buck to Succeed Jensen Huang, With Interim CEO Colette Kress Second

Prediction Markets Favor Nvidia Insider Ian Buck to Succeed Jensen Huang, With Interim CEO Colette Kress Second

Author: Fortune Crypto·

Key Takeaways

  • •Nvidia named CFO Colette Kress interim CEO on Thursday after announcing Jensen Huang's resignation, with the board weighing both internal and external candidates for the permanent role.
  • •Prediction market traders favor Ian Buck, who has led Nvidia's high-performance computing division since 2004, giving him 37% implied odds on Kalshi versus 19% for Kress and 9% for Arm Holdings CEO Rene Haas.
  • •Succession betting has drawn heavy activity, with Kalshi's market exceeding $1.5 million in trading volume and Polymarket's nearing $630,000 on a similar lineup of contenders.
  • •The speculation stems from an investigation into Huang, who disclosed a relationship with an executive reportedly identified by U.S. intelligence officials as a Chinese spy, followed by reports of an extramarital affair with an Nvidia employee.
  • •Traders are also betting on related outcomes, assigning 93% odds to Huang testifying before Congress by next July, while perpetual futures contracts on Nvidia's stock, down about 5% to roughly $165, logged $111 million in volume over 24 hours.
Prediction Markets Favor Nvidia Insider Ian Buck to Succeed Jensen Huang, With Interim CEO Colette Kress Second

Prediction market bettors are already putting money on who will succeed Jensen Huang atop Nvidia following the company's announcement of his resignation. On platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, traders buy and sell contracts tied to real-world outcomes, with contract prices functioning as the implied odds of each result.

On Thursday, Nvidia announced Huang's departure and named Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress interim CEO, adding that the board is searching for a permanent successor and will consider internal and external candidates. Trading in contracts on his successor picked up earlier this week on Kalshi and Polymarket, generating hundreds of thousands of dollars in trading volume.

Kress, however, is not the favorite to land the job permanently. That distinction belongs to Ian Buck, Nvidia's vice president and general manager of its high-performance computing division, who leads the field on Kalshi with 37% odds. Buck, at the company since 2004, is followed by Kress at 19% and Rene Haas, chief executive of Arm Holdings, at 9%. Arm is a British chip designer that licenses its technology to Nvidia. The field reflects the board's stated openness to inside and outside hires: Buck and Kress would be internal promotions, while Haas would come to Nvidia from a separate company. Trading volume in the Kalshi market has already surpassed $1.5 million.

Polymarket's market shows a similar lineup, with the same leading contenders drawing comparable odds and trading volume nearing $630,000.

Madison Huang, Jensen Huang's daughter and Nvidia's senior director of product marketing, trails the leading contenders, holding less than a 1% chance of succeeding him on Kalshi and roughly 2% on Polymarket.

Prediction markets have been capitalizing on the turmoil at Nvidia since the company announced an investigation into Huang, who told its board he had an intimate relationship with a business executive reportedly identified by U.S. intelligence officials as a Chinese spy. Scrutiny intensified Wednesday, when reports surfaced alleging that Huang also had an extramarital affair with an Nvidia employee.

Bettors are wagering on more than Nvidia's next leader. One Polymarket contract on the timing of Huang's departure announcement generated more than $22.5 million in trading volume. Another active Kalshi contract asking when Huang will testify before Congress has drawn nearly $170,000 in trading volume. Traders put the odds of testimony before next July at 93%, compared with roughly 91% before January and 86% before December — an implied timeline in which a December appearance is the least certain of the three deadlines.

The turmoil has also put Nvidia's stock price in focus, with shares down roughly 5% Thursday morning at about $165. Kalshi traders are also betting on those price swings through perpetual futures contracts, taking positions on whether the price will rise or fall without owning shares. Those contracts recorded $111 million in trading volume over the past 24 hours. With the board's search for a permanent CEO still open, contracts on the succession, the testimony timing, and the stock's direction give traders a running read on several of the story's unresolved threads.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com.