Polymarket US Launches 5-Minute Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and XRP Prediction Contracts
Key Takeaways
- •Polymarket US launched five-minute crypto price prediction contracts for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, paying $1 per correct directional forecast regardless of how far the price moves.
- •Settlement is based on Chainlink's 60-second time-weighted average price to prevent last-second manipulation, with ties automatically resolving in the 'up' position.
- •Polymarket previously shut down its US operations after a $1.4 million fine for unregistered derivatives, then re-entered the market by acquiring QCX LLC, which held a CFTC license, for $112 million in July 2025.
- •Rival Kalshi leads in US consumer volume, supported by a five-year legal head start and partnerships with Robinhood, Coinbase, and Webull across contracts spanning sports, economic indicators, and weather.
- •State-level restrictions, including full bans in Nevada and Minnesota, sports-contract bans in Washington and Michigan, and active challenges in New York, Texas, and California, create uneven availability despite federal CFTC oversight.
Polymarket US has officially launched 5-minute crypto price prediction contracts on the Polymarket US App, with Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP among the featured assets.
The product operates as a binary options market in which users forecast whether a chosen cryptocurrency will move up or down. Correctly positioned predictions pay out $1 per contract. Because payouts are fixed, a contract settles identically whether the underlying asset moves by a fraction of a percent or by a wide margin during its five-minute window — only the direction matters.
To promote fairness, settlement is based on Chainlink's 60-second Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP). By averaging the digital asset's price over the final 60 seconds, the platform aims to prevent last-second price manipulation or cheating. In addition, any tie — where the final price matches the initial price — automatically resolves in the "up" position.
Polymarket's re-entry into the US market
Polymarket first launched in the United States in 2020 but was forced to shut down its domestic operations after being fined $1.4 million for offering unregistered derivatives.
In July 2025, the platform acquired QCX LLC in a $112 million deal focused on re-entering the US market. The derivatives exchange came with an existing license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing Polymarket to replace the previously unregulated connection of Web3 digital wallets to its platform.
Earlier this month, Polymarket US introduced 15-minute, hourly, and daily contracts, with today's 5-minute debut representing its latest ultra-short offering.
Growth and competition
While Polymarket dominates the global events market space, rival Kalshi continues to lead in terms of US consumer volume. Kalshi launched legally in 2020, granting it a five-year head start over Polymarket, and has focused on capturing deep institutional liquidity by building partnerships with the likes of Robinhood, Coinbase, and Webull. Its contracts also span a wide variety of events, including sports, economic indicators, and weather.
By comparison, Polymarket's contracts mostly cover crypto and pop-culture events — a focus the rapid succession of ultra-short crypto launches reinforces. Its operations also remain stand-alone for now, with users accessing the beta app on an invite-only basis.
Although both platforms are federally regulated under the CFTC, the state-level landscape remains fragmented. Nevada and Minnesota have completely blocked all prediction market platforms, Washington and Michigan have banned sports-related contract trading, and New York, Texas, and California are actively contesting prediction market operations. That patchwork means availability can vary from state to state even under a single federal regulator, a dynamic that remains unresolved as Polymarket US continues to roll out new contracts.
Source: Coinpedia
