Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley initiated coverage of SoFi Technologies (SOFI) on Monday with an Overweight rating and a $22 price target, a call that places him firmly in the minority on Wall Street.

With the stock trading near $18.33, the price target implies roughly 19% upside from current levels. Shares were up about 0.4% on Monday, trading near $18.36. Most of the Street remains on the sidelines: of 27 analysts tracked by FactSet, 13 rate SoFi a Hold and five rate it a Sell, while only nine call the stock a Buy.

Moley's price target is based on roughly 25 times his fiscal 2027 earnings estimate. Piper Sandler projects SoFi will generate $4.89 billion in revenue and earn 63 cents per share in 2026, rising to $6.14 billion in revenue and 88 cents per share in earnings in 2027.

Ecosystem Thesis

The firm's bullish view rests on two main pillars: a large and underpenetrated lending and debt-consolidation market, and a product ecosystem that is pulling customers deeper into the platform over time.

CEO Anthony Noto, who has led SoFi since 2018 after serving as chief operating officer of Twitter, told Barron's that existing members accounted for more than half of all new products opened in the second quarter. Product growth reached 43% year-over-year in the quarter, outpacing member growth of 35%. Moley points to that gap as evidence that customers are adopting multiple SoFi products, boosting lifetime value per member.

SoFi has expanded well beyond its lending origins. The company, which began in 2011 refinancing student loans and went public in 2021 through a merger with a special-purpose acquisition company, now offers checking and savings accounts, investing products, credit cards, and insurance. A national bank charter obtained in early 2022 through the acquisition of Golden Pacific Bancorp let SoFi gather deposits directly rather than relying solely on partner banks, a route other online lenders have also pursued, including LendingClub's 2021 purchase of Radius Bank. Moley describes this as a financial "one-stop shop" strategy designed to deepen customer engagement over time.

Refinancing Opportunity

Moley's case for SoFi leans heavily on the refinancing opportunity. SoFi targets consumers in their late 20s to early 40s with strong credit profiles and substantial credit card or student loan balances. The company offers annual percentage rates up to 50% lower than typical credit cards, and Moley argues that positions it well to capture refinancing demand as rates reprice. He calls credit card and student loan refinancing "two products that align closely with the liability profile" of SoFi's target customers.

Capital Position and Risks

SoFi's total capital ratio stood at 18.8% at the end of the second quarter, with SoFi Bank's ratio at 15.3%. Both sit well above the 10.5% regulatory minimum, giving the company room to grow its lending book.

Looking ahead, Piper Sandler forecasts 22% compound annual revenue growth from 2026 through 2028 and 27% adjusted EBITDA growth over the same period.

The firm also flagged several risks, including rising credit losses, interest-rate volatility, dilutive acquisitions, and heavy spending with limited near-term revenue benefits.

Stock Performance Context

SoFi shares remain down nearly 30% year-to-date, weighed down earlier in the year by a short-seller report that accused the company of running a "financial engineering treadmill." The stock has since recovered 18% over the past three months.

The split among analysts underscores the same variables Piper Sandler flagged as risks, particularly how rising credit losses and interest-rate volatility develop as the company scales its lending book.

Piper Sandler said SoFi's current price offers an "attractive entry point" for long-term investors, arguing the company "deserves a premium multiple to peers" based on its banking penetration and higher-income customer base.