Pi Network's price has dropped to $0.090 after the launch of Protocol v25 on July 22 sparked profit-taking, erasing most of the prior week's 39% rally and shifting sentiment back toward fear.

According to data from crypto.news, Pi Network (PI) briefly reached $0.102 on July 20 after rebounding from a record low of approximately $0.0704 on July 14. Sellers rejected the rally above $0.10, however, and the ensuing retreat left late entrants exposed as traders unwound positions that had been accumulated ahead of the network upgrade.

Protocol v25 Goes Live Amid Sell-the-News Dynamics

Protocol v25 went live on July 22, introducing BN254 cryptography and Poseidon hashing—tools designed to give developers new capabilities for privacy-preserving smart contracts and zero-knowledge applications. Both primitives are already widely deployed across major Layer 1 and Layer 2 networks for ZK rollups and identity verification, meaning Pi Network's upgrade narrows the gap with established smart-contract platforms but does not introduce novel functionality to the broader ecosystem. The Pi Core Team described the update as primarily focused on "improving network stability and reliability," but the rollout produced no immediate increase in application usage or demand for PI.

Supply pressure has compounded the challenge. PiScan data previously indicated that approximately 127.5 million PI tokens were scheduled for release over a 30-day period, averaging 4.25 million tokens per day. Miners who accumulated tokens over several years are able to sell migrated balances, meaning every price recovery hinges on sufficient demand to absorb the additional circulating supply—a dynamic common to recently migrated mainnet tokens where multi-year mobile-mined balances become liquid for the first time.

Derivatives Traders Reduce Exposure

Derivatives traders have trimmed positions since the rally stalled. According to CoinAnk data, PI futures open interest has dropped to roughly $9.6 million from a recent peak of $12.1 million, indicating that positions are being closed rather than rolled into fresh leveraged bets.

Open interest had risen from $9.11 million to $10.73 million during the first phase of the rebound, as previously reported by crypto.news. The current figure remains far below the $28 million recorded at the start of June and the $35 million reached during May's rally, leaving PI without the derivatives participation typically needed to sustain a leverage-driven breakout.

Institutional demand has also remained limited. PI currently lacks the spot exchange-traded products, corporate treasury allocations, and deep derivatives markets available to larger cryptocurrencies. Pi Network Ventures announced a $100 million ecosystem fund in May 2025, but a crypto.news review identified only one publicly disclosed investment of an unspecified size, constraining its measurable impact on token demand. The pace and transparency of subsequent fund deployments remain a metric developers and traders are watching for evidence of real ecosystem traction.

Macroeconomic Headwinds Mount for Speculative Altcoins

Macroeconomic conditions have turned unfavorable for speculative altcoins. Brent crude climbed to $98 per barrel on July 23 as Middle East tensions expanded into the Red Sea. Meanwhile, traders raised the probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in July to 35%, up from 12% a week earlier. Odds of a September increase reached 55%, according to CME FedWatch data.

Technology shares added to the broader pressure. Alphabet's higher capital-spending plans unsettled investors, and Tesla reported negative quarterly free cash flow for the first time in over two years. Commenting on the earnings, eToro global market strategist Lale Akoner stated:

"Alphabet is beginning to show that connection. Tesla still needs to prove that its ambitious projects can move from technological promise to commercial returns."

Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.28% ahead of Thursday's open, while two-year Treasury yields reached a 17-month high. Elevated yields increase the cost of holding non-yielding assets and can draw liquidity away from small-cap tokens whose demand is driven largely by retail speculation.

Technical Picture: Downtrend Intact, Momentum Deteriorating

PI's daily chart continues to reflect a long-term downtrend. Price remains below the Supertrend resistance at $0.0999, and the indicator will maintain its bearish reading unless buyers reclaim that level on a daily closing basis. The Chaikin Money Flow stands at minus 0.17, indicating that selling volume has outpaced buying volume in recent sessions.

On the 4-hour chart, a descending triangle has formed following PI's rejection above $0.10. Lower highs have compressed price against horizontal support at $0.0895, while the pattern's upper boundary now intersects the $0.092–$0.093 range. A close above that boundary would weaken the bearish setup and give buyers another opportunity to challenge $0.10.

Momentum indicators have also deteriorated. The 4-hour RSI has slipped to 49.14, falling below its moving average of 51.86. The MACD has completed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line at 0.0005 beneath the signal line at 0.0010 and the histogram at minus 0.0006.

Key Support Levels Below $0.0895

PI's primary downside trigger sits at the triangle floor near $0.0895. A confirmed 4-hour close below that level would complete the bearish pattern and expose $0.085, followed by the July consolidation zone between $0.080 and $0.075. The record low near $0.0704 would serve as the final major support if selling intensifies.

A renewed surge in oil prices, further increases in Treasury yields, or a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance could deepen the risk-off environment. Continuous token releases would add asset-specific pressure, particularly if open interest and spot volume continue to decline following the upgrade.

The bearish thesis would weaken if PI closes above $0.10, converts the Supertrend into support, and attracts rising spot volume alongside higher open interest. Until those conditions materialize, Protocol v25 stands as a technical upgrade whose market impact has not yet offset token dilution or the prevailing downtrend.