Pi Network (PI) moved modestly higher on Monday as buyers attempted to hold the key $0.0839 support level following two consecutive days of losses. The limited recovery came after the Pi Core Team released a new Node upgrade focused on advancing the network's distributed computing capabilities. Even so, PI's technical outlook remains mixed, with weak derivatives activity and indecisive momentum limiting confidence in a sustained rebound.

Weak market sentiment weighs on Pi Network

Pi Network remains a highly speculative cryptocurrency whose price is heavily influenced by broader market conditions, retail demand and the strength of its community. The project was launched in 2019 by Stanford PhDs Nicolas Kokkalis and Chengdiao Fan and lets users accumulate tokens through a smartphone app rather than power-intensive mining hardware; its Open Network mainnet phase went live on February 20, 2025, opening the token up to external trading.

CoinMarketCap's Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which scores market sentiment on a scale from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed), stood at 38 on Monday, reflecting cautious sentiment and reduced risk appetite among investors. Renewed geopolitical tensions involving Israel, Lebanon, the United States and Iran have contributed to uncertainty across risk assets, and this defensive environment could make it more difficult for speculative tokens such as PI to attract fresh capital.

The Pi Network community continues to anticipate further ecosystem development around its reported base of 18 million Know Your Customer (KYC)-verified users, a verification step the project requires before users can migrate their mined balances onto the Open Network mainnet.

The Pi Core Team released version 0.6.2 of its Node software on Saturday. The upgrade follows a successful test of distributed computing capabilities across Pi Nodes and could provide a foundation for additional network utilities. Expanding the role of individual Nodes beyond transaction validation could strengthen the network's functionality and create new use cases for participants. However, the upgrade's long-term impact will depend on whether developers introduce applications that generate sustainable user demand.

Social activity rose modestly after the announcement. Santiment data, where Social Dominance measures an asset's share of crypto-related social media discussion and Social Volume counts mentions, shows Pi Network's Social Dominance climbed to 0.01% on Sunday from 0.009% on Saturday, while Social Volume increased to 12 from 8 over the same period. The figures suggest the Node upgrade generated slightly more discussion, although overall social engagement remains limited.

Pi Network's derivatives market continues to show reduced trader participation. According to CoinAnk, Open Interest in PI futures declined to $8.81 million from $9.12 million on Friday. PI's derivatives activity is concentrated on venues such as Bitget, OKX, MEXC and Gate.io, as the token is not listed on major exchanges such as Binance or Coinbase. Open Interest measures the notional value of outstanding derivatives contracts, and a decline generally indicates that traders are closing leveraged positions or reducing their exposure. The continued reduction in PI futures Open Interest suggests speculative interest is weakening despite the latest technical upgrade and Monday's mild price recovery.

Pi Network struggles to extend falling-channel breakout

Pi Network maintains a bearish short-term bias as its price consolidates below $0.0900. PI previously broke above a falling-channel pattern on the daily chart, creating the possibility of a bullish reversal, but the token has failed to produce meaningful upside follow-through, reflecting weak buying demand.

At the time of writing, buyers are defending the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.0839, measured from the recent decline between $0.1341 and $0.0703. A sustained break below $0.0839 could expose the former channel resistance trendline near $0.0786. A decisive daily close below this level would weaken the bullish breakout structure and raise the risk of deeper losses.

Daily momentum indicators provide little evidence of a strong recovery. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains only marginally above its signal line and is at risk of forming a bearish crossover, a move that would indicate downside momentum is beginning to strengthen. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 45, below its neutral midpoint of 50, a reading that reflects modest bearish pressure while remaining consistent with range-bound trading rather than an oversold market.

On the upside, the psychological threshold at $0.1000 represents the first major resistance level. That area is reinforced by the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $0.1022, creating a meaningful supply zone where sellers could limit any recovery. A decisive breakout above $0.1022 would strengthen PI's recovery prospects and could open the way toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.1190.

Until PI generates stronger buying demand and derivatives participation begins to recover, its near-term outlook is likely to remain cautious.

Source: CoinJournal