NewsMacroPhilippines to Review 2026 and 2027 Economic Targets After Weak Third-Quarter Growth

Philippines to Review 2026 and 2027 Economic Targets After Weak Third-Quarter Growth

Author: Bworldonline·

Key Takeaways

  • •The Development Budget Coordination Committee will meet in early December to reassess the 2026 and 2027 macroeconomic assumptions, covering GDP growth, inflation, and the peso exchange rate.
  • •Third-quarter GDP grew only 2.1%, well below the full-year target of 3.5% to 4.5%, which the government had already lowered in June from 5% to 6%.
  • •Officials attributed the weak performance to the ongoing Middle East crisis and a very strong El Niño that has hurt farm production and food supplies.
  • •Malacañang is not yet considering a state of calamity declaration despite a resolution backed by 20 senators, noting that farmer aid from the DSWD and Department of Agriculture cloud seeding are already underway.
  • •To mitigate pressures, the DTI is tracking more than 190 basic goods and prime commodities, while MSMEs are being supported through microfinancing, credit guarantee programs, and the CREATE MORE law.
Philippines to Review 2026 and 2027 Economic Targets After Weak Third-Quarter Growth

The Philippine government will revisit its economic growth, inflation, and exchange rate targets for 2026 and 2027 next month following weaker-than-expected third-quarter growth, Malacañang said on Tuesday.

"In line with the recommendations of the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev), the targets for 2026 and 2027, including GDP growth, inflation and the peso exchange rate, will be reviewed," Palace Press Officer Clarissa A. Castro told reporters.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) is set to convene in early December to reassess the country's macroeconomic assumptions and targets, she added. As the interagency panel of the government's economic managers, the DBCC sets the assumptions and fiscal program on which national budget planning is based, making the December meeting the decision point for any revisions to the 2026 and 2027 targets.

"The government is pursuing projects and programs to ease inflationary pressures so they do not have a significant effect on the economy," Ms. Castro said.

The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) is monitoring commodity prices, which are expected to remain stable through the end of the year. Authorities are also working to secure adequate supplies of food and petroleum products to avert shortages that could disrupt economic activity.

Third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.1%, well below the lower end of the government's current full-year target. "We know what happened. The issue of the Middle East crisis is still there, and so is the big effect of a very strong El Niño," Ms. Castro said, pointing to continuing pressures on the economy. El Niño, a climate pattern that typically brings below-normal rainfall to the Philippines, has weighed on farm production and food supplies.

The full-year growth goal of 3.5% to 4.5% was already lowered by the DBCC in June from 5% to 6%, as the Middle East fighting and the lingering effects of the flood control controversy weighed on the outlook.

Asked about government measures in response to the weak third quarter, Ms. Castro cited price monitoring, with the DTI tracking more than 190 basic goods and prime commodities.

Ms. Castro said President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. wants food and fuel supplies to be maintained at more than adequate levels, with rice a particular priority. "If we run short and we ourselves have to line up at gas stations and stores because supply is lacking, our economy will be affected even more," she said.

For micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), Ms. Castro cited a microfinancing program managed by the DTI's Small Business Corp. and credit guarantee programs that provide capital at low interest rates. She also pointed to the CREATE MORE law and ease-of-doing-business reforms. "These are just some of the President's programs… If the economy grows slowly… these kinds of programs (can mitigate the impact)," she said.

Malacañang is not yet considering a state of calamity declaration as a result of the very strong El Niño, even as 20 senators backed such a declaration in a resolution. Ms. Castro said interventions are already in place, including aid from the Department of Social Welfare and Development for affected farmers and cloud seeding by the Department of Agriculture (DA).

"For now, the President is confident that the DA and all agencies are acting for our fellow Filipinos," she said. — Erika Mae P. Sinaking