The Philippines produced 3.08 million metric tons (MMT) of palay (unmilled rice) in the third quarter, down 18% by volume from a year earlier, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority. Palay is the raw grain milled into rice, the staple food in Filipino households, which makes quarterly output figures a closely watched indicator of the country's domestic rice supply.

The Department of Agriculture (DA) attributed the decline in palay output to high production costs.

"We anticipated the decline in third quarter production, mainly because of the reduction in harvested area. High fertilizer and fuel costs affected farmers' investment in inputs and, in some cases, their planting decisions," Agriculture Undersecretary Christopher V. Morales said.

Mr. Morales said El Niño is only one of the factors influencing the production data. Others include farmer planting decisions skewed toward risk aversion, fertilizer and fuel costs, weather disturbances, and irrigation constraints. El Niño is a climate pattern typically associated with reduced rainfall in the Philippines, a condition that can tighten water availability for irrigation-dependent rice farms.

The DA estimated that palay production will fall by around 1 MMT compared with 2025. The PSA's quarterly production reports in the coming months will show how actual harvests track against that estimate.

To help sustain production during El Niño, the agency is working to improve irrigation systems, promote climate-resilient rice varieties, step up farm monitoring, and advise farmers on harvest timing to avoid the most damaging dry spells.

"We have more tools now to mitigate the impact," Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. said, citing improved rice varieties, solar-powered irrigation systems, better weather monitoring, and more responsive crop calendars.

— Maria Mikaela H. Tormon, BusinessWorld