The Philippines' electricity demand is projected to exceed 22,000 megawatts (MW) in 2027, surpassing this year's expected peak, as a very strong El Niño threatens to push consumption higher amid extreme heat.

Peak demand marks the highest simultaneous draw on the grid — the point at which consumption runs closest to available supply. The Department of Energy projects peak demand of up to 22,231 MW next year, with consumption expected to be significantly higher than the forecast demand of 21,007 MW for the remainder of 2026 — a gap of 1,224 MW.

By region, Luzon is expected to account for the largest share of electricity demand at up to 15,928 MW, nearly three-quarters of the projected national peak, followed by Mindanao at 3,209 MW and the Visayas at 3,094 MW. The Philippines operates three regional grids — Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao — that are interconnected, allowing power to be shifted between island groups when one faces a shortfall.

The country is currently experiencing a very strong El Niño, which is expected to persist through the first half of 2027, according to the government weather service PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration). El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, is characterized by abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It is typically associated with shifts in rainfall patterns and warmer-than-usual conditions in the Philippines.

Energy Undersecretary Mario C. Marasigan, citing simulations, said power generation from hydropower plants is expected to decline by 60%. Hydropower output depends on rainfall and reservoir levels, making it directly exposed to El Niño's disruption of normal precipitation.

"Initially, we thought solar generation might also be affected, potentially declining by about 10%. However, simulations conducted by the IEMOP (Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines) showed that this would not be the case," Mr. Marasigan said on the sidelines of an event on Tuesday.

He identified the Visayas as the main challenge, adding that officials will continue to maximize the region's power draw from Luzon and Mindanao.

"If El Niño affects all areas or is concentrated in Luzon, the Visayas could face power supply problems," Mr. Marasigan said.

The region remains highly dependent on power imports from Luzon and Mindanao to meet its electricity needs, leaving it vulnerable to thin supply margins that lead to red and yellow alerts — notices raised when operating reserves fall below required levels, with red alerts signaling the more severe stage, in which manual load dropping can follow.

To improve the power supply situation for the Visayas, around 253 MW of power reserves are targeted for delivery to provide the region with a buffer. In addition, power projects with a potential combined capacity of 2,700 MW are due for completion this year, more than 4,700 MW have been committed for delivery by 2027. That delivery window overlaps the first half of 2027 — the period PAGASA expects El Niño to persist and the DOE projects demand to peak.

"Nonetheless, we don't see shortages," Mr. Marasigan said.

— Sheldeen Joy Talavera, BusinessWorld (source)