Crisis readiness means moving up the value chain

By Khalid Hassan

Nickel will help power the global energy transition. But what will it power in the Philippines: exports of raw ore, or new industries and better jobs?

Much of the country’s nickel supply chain remains centered on extraction. Research by the International Labour Organization (ILO) finds that 70% of employment in Philippine mining is in manual and extraction-oriented occupations. Jobs further along the supply chain, particularly in processing and manufacturing, tend to be more formal, better paid and better protected.

This is not just a mining issue. It reflects a broader economic choice. The Philippines can remain at the lowest-value end of global supply chains, or build the skills and industries needed to move into processing, manufacturing, services and innovation. Natural resources and foreign investment are not sufficient on their own. They must generate more value and better jobs at home.

The same principle applies to the disruptions reshaping work. Artificial intelligence is changing tasks. The green transition is creating some occupations while reducing demand for others. Rising temperatures are making work more dangerous. Platform work is challenging rules designed around traditional employment.

The answer is not to resist change. It is to help workers and businesses move into work that is more productive, better paid and more secure.

Jobs must deliver more

The Philippines has a large and energetic workforce. In May 2026, 49.63 million Filipinos were employed. Yet 6.04 million, or 12.2% of employed persons, were underemployed and wanted more hours or additional work.

Unemployment therefore tells only part of the story. The country must also ask whether jobs are productive, safe, fairly paid and covered by social protection.

Technology should be approached with the same balance. ILO research estimates that only 3.6% of Philippine jobs fall into the highest category of exposure to generative AI, where the risk of displacement is greater. For many more workers, AI is likely to change tasks rather than eliminate entire jobs.

This gives the Philippines time to prepare. People should be trained before their roles change, workers should be consulted when new systems are introduced, and productivity gains should lead to better wages and career opportunities.

Working conditions are also an economic issue. The ILO projects that heat stress could eliminate 2.2% of global working hours by 2030, equivalent to 80 million full-time jobs, with construction among the sectors hardest hit. Poorly managed workloads, insecurity, violence, harassment and other psychosocial risks are estimated to cost the global economy 1.37% of GDP each year.

Safe and healthy work is not an optional benefit. It is essential to productivity.

Turning separate policies into one national effort

The Philippines does not need another long list of separate programs. It needs existing policies, budgets and investments to work together.

The Trabaho Para sa Bayan Plan 2025-2034 provides the national direction. The Philippine Roadmap for the Global Accelerator on Jobs and Social Protection for Just Transitions, approved through the Trabaho Para sa Bayan Inter-Agency Council in June 2026, can turn that direction into action from 2026 to 2028 and measurable results by 2030.

Put simply, the Global Accelerator connects decisions that are too often made separately: where investment goes, which industries grow, what skills workers need, how jobs are protected and how change is financed.

The government must lead. Employers and workers must help shape the choices through social dialogue. Development partners can provide expertise and help mobilize funds.

The Roadmap begins with construction and transport. Both sectors are vital to growth, but both face informality, safety risks and rapid technological and environmental change. The same approach can later guide mining and other important supply chains.

Success should not be measured only by the money invested or the output produced. It should also be measured by the value created in the Philippines, the workers trained, local firms strengthened, decent jobs generated and communities protected.

Three priorities for the next three years

First, every major investment should include a jobs and skills plan. Infrastructure, modern transport, renewable energy, mining and industrial projects should identify the occupations they will need, explain how Filipinos will be trained and hired, and set out how workers will be kept safe.

Government incentives and contracts should favor companies that develop local suppliers, respect workers’ rights, provide social protection and create routes into higher-skilled jobs.

Second, training must keep pace with investment. Courses should be short, practical, recognized by industry and open to employed, informal and displaced workers. Employers should help design training and offer apprenticeships. The government should improve information on changing skill needs, strengthen trainers and connect people to jobs. Workers’ organizations should help ensure that the transition is fair.

Without this bridge, high-productivity jobs may remain unfilled or go elsewhere.

Third, protection must follow the worker. Platform workers, self-employed people, project workers and those moving between formal and informal jobs should not lose protection each time their work changes.

Registration should be simpler, contributions affordable and government systems better connected. Local governments and Public Employment Service Offices can help people find work, access training and enroll in social protection close to home.

Fair wages matter across all three priorities. Competing mainly through low labor costs is not a sound strategy for a country seeking upper-middle-income status. Higher productivity, effective wage-setting, collective bargaining and a fair share of the gains should advance together.

The Philippines should compete through quality, skills and respect for rights.

Pay for results, not promises

Plans without financing will not change lives. National budgets, private investment, development banks and responsible financing can all support stronger infrastructure, better businesses, modern training and wider social protection.

But public support should come with clear expectations. Every peso should help produce measurable economic and employment results.

By the end of 2028, the public should be able to see the difference: investments linked to local jobs, stronger small and medium enterprises, training that leads to work, better labor-market information, and national and local agencies able to deliver.

By 2030, these foundations should mean fewer people trapped in underemployment, more workers in safer and higher-value jobs, rising real wages and wider social protection.

The choice is clear: export raw potential, or turn it into value, skills and security at home. The future is not jobs or social protection. It is jobs with social protection, supported by investment that builds Filipino capabilities and respects workers’ rights.

That is how disruption can become a path to competitiveness and shared prosperity.

Khalid Hassan is the current Director of the ILO Country Office for the Philippines.