By Maria Mikaela H. Tormon

The Philippine Department of Agriculture (DA) is imposing a 60-day suspension on pork imports, a move it said is meant to provide relief to a hog industry whose losses have been estimated at P27.9 billion.

Department Order 33, issued under the authority of Republic Act No. 8800, also known as the Safeguard Measures Act, suspends imports of fresh and frozen pork cuts — including ham and pork shoulder — as well as carcasses and edible offal. Such safeguard measures are temporary trade remedies, available to a government when import surges injure a domestic industry.

Speaking at a briefing, Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. said the ban could be extended given prevailing oversupply conditions. He noted that the DA estimates current pork inventories are sufficient to cover 170 days of demand.

Government figures show how heavily the market has come to rely on foreign supply. Pork imports in 2025 totaled 836,240 metric tons (MT), up 42% from 2023. Imports also accounted for a rising share of pork available on the market, equivalent to 65% in the first half of 2026, from 61% in 2025 and 39% in 2021.

Domestic production, meanwhile, was sufficient to meet 65.5% of demand in 2025, down from 74.3% in 2021. In the first eight months of 2026, that rate slipped to 54%. In terms of actual domestic consumption, imports accounted for 55%.

Frozen pork imports reached 121,000 MT in July, up 83% from a year earlier and more than double the July 2024 level. Imports now make up 94% of the country's pork inventory — a dependence that makes the suspension the main variable in near-term supply.

The influx of import competition has dragged farmgate prices lower, with the average falling to P175.75 in the first half from P198.30 in 2025. Some producers reported that their hogs fetched as little as P120 per kilogram.

The DA estimates that domestic hog raisers lost P27.9 billion in the seven months to July, a figure it said could double to P55.8 billion by the end of the year if weak prices persist.

Mr. Laurel said planning for the import ban had been underway since July. The original target date was the first week of December, but the decision was made to move the ban up to this month. The 60-day suspension will take effect once the Bureau of Customs releases an implementing order — the step that pins down the exact start date traders and importers will be watching for.

Farmgate Prices

The DA is counting on the import ban to lift farmgate prices by at least P50, though Mr. Laurel flagged the risk of market speculation.

"Let's keep the market guessing… we don't want people to speculate," he said, adding that if the anticipated price hike is attractive enough, "guaranteed, someone will hoard."

The DA currently estimates the farmgate price for hogs raised by backyard raisers at around P142, while hogs from commercial operations fetch P150 — both below the roughly P165 breakeven the DA itself cites, which means raisers are selling at a loss even as the ban is prepared.

If the resulting farmgate price "is lower than breakeven cost or at breakeven, then we will extend the ban. Breakeven would be about P165 but costs change and need to be studied monthly. If fuel prices drop and an agreement is reached (regarding the transit of oil through) the Strait of Hormuz, maybe breakeven will be P160 or P155," he added.

That monthly cost review will effectively act as the decision gate on whether the suspension lapses after 60 days or is extended.

Consumers may face somewhat higher pork prices over the holidays, but Mr. Laurel said the increase should not amount to a sharp spike.

"During the holiday season, the price of goods increases a bit. It's normal. We will try to make sure that we keep it in the normal band. There are data showing that it increased by 5% or 3%, depending on the market, depending on the demand. But we do not see any unusual spikes," Mr. Laurel said.

Hog Industry Wants Tariffs Raised

Industry groups said the 60-day freeze does not go far enough. The Agricultural Sector Alliance of the Philippines, Inc., the Pork Producers Federation of the Philippines, Inc. and the Philippine Pork Council said in a joint statement that they want tariffs restored to 30% for shipments within the minimum access volume quota and 40% for shipments exceeding the quota. The current tariffs are 15% and 25%, respectively.

The groups frame a tariff adjustment as the durable fix, in contrast to an import ban that is temporary by design.

"Anything less will provide only temporary relief while leaving local producers exposed to the same market pressures that they have brought in the industry to the brink of collapse," the groups said.

The hog industry is also pushing for the pork import ban to be extended until the first quarter of 2027.

The sector has yet to fully recover from the African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak in 2019, which reduced the national hog herd by about one-third from its pre-ASF peak of roughly 13-14 million head.

The customs implementing order, the monthly breakeven reviews and any movement on tariffs are the markers to watch as the suspension unfolds.

Originally published by BusinessWorld Online. Source: Pork imports halted for 60 days; hog raisers also want tariff hike