The Philippines has been assessed as the eighth most vulnerable of 77 economies to El Niño-related weather disruptions, with rice production leaving the country particularly exposed to crop losses, according to Oxford Economics.

In a report published on Nov. 10, the research firm ranked the Philippines behind only Ecuador, Peru, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Angola, and Kenya.

"Combining country-specific climatic exposure with sectoral economic structure, Ecuador, Peru, and Indonesia emerge as the most vulnerable economies in our 77-country sample," Oxford Economics said.

"By contrast, most advanced economies, particularly those in Europe, occupy the lower end of the country rankings, reflecting a combination of more limited climatic exposure and more insulated economic structures," it added.

The five least vulnerable economies in the sample were Malta, Bulgaria, Finland, the United Kingdom, and Sweden.

El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is a recurring climate pattern marked by above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that can disrupt rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide. The oscillation swings between warm El Niño episodes and their cool La Niña counterparts on an irregular cycle that typically recurs every two to seven years. Oxford Economics said the crops that countries specialize in shape their agricultural vulnerability to the phenomenon, noting that previous research shows maize, rice, and wheat yields are generally hit hardest during such events.

"For instance, exposure to crop losses is particularly high in Southeast Asian economies specializing in rice production, most notably the Philippines, Indonesia, and India," it said.

For the Philippines, the exposure lands on a crop with outsized domestic significance: rice is the country's principal staple food, placing the assessment squarely on the grain that anchors the national diet.

The report also highlighted how economic structure and the mix of electricity-generating technologies influence a country's vulnerability — a framing that puts energy systems, alongside agriculture, among the channels through which climate conditions reach the broader economy.

"Our country-sector El Niño vulnerability index reveals that primary sectors in South America, Asia-Pacific, and parts of Africa are among the most vulnerable to El Niño-driven supply shocks," Oxford Economics said.

The full report is available via BusinessWorld: PHL deemed among most vulnerable to El Niño. — Justine Irish D. Tabile