By Aaron Michael C. Sy, Reporter

THE GOVERNMENT is waiting for more favorable market conditions before moving ahead with a retail Treasury bond (RTB) offering this year, amid elevated interest rates and tensions in the Middle East.

RTBs are Treasury securities sold in small denominations — historically as low as P500 per unit — that allow individual savers to lend directly to the national government, making them a staple of the state's domestic borrowing program.

National Treasurer Sharon P. Almanza told reporters on Monday that the government still plans to issue RTBs within the year.

“There will always be a market for RTBs, particularly with maturities coming due this year. The domestic market remains liquid, although the market sentiment is still affected by geopolitical tension in the Middle East as well as developments in the global financial market particularly the US Treasury,” she said in a follow-up Viber message.

The government's last RTB offering was in August 2025, when it raised P507.16 billion from five-year notes.

Ms. Almanza also told BusinessWorld on Monday that the government aims to raise less than the amount generated from last year's issuance.

She said the planned offering will again be made available on GCash through the GBonds feature. The mobile wallet channel lets Filipinos buy the bonds directly from their phones without going through a bank or broker, broadening access to small investors.

Ms. Almanza added that there will also be a bond exchange program similar to last year, but the new money raised from the upcoming issuance will likely be smaller.

Analysts said the market environment remains supportive for an RTB issuance this year, citing easing inflation, strong liquidity, and investors seeking to lock in yields before rates move lower.

“The market environment for a potential RTB issuance later this year remains broadly supportive, particularly if inflation expectations continue to stabilize and if monetary policy becomes less restrictive,” Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc. Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said in a Viber message.

“An RTB issuance would likely benefit from easing domestic interest rates, ample system liquidity, and strong demand from retail investors seeking relatively safe and predictable returns,” he added.

Mr. Asuncion said investor preference has leaned more toward shorter tenors amid interest rate and inflation uncertainty, suggesting that a three- to five-year RTB could attract strong demand while helping the government manage its funding requirements efficiently.

Reyes Tacandong & Co. Senior Adviser Jonathan L. Ravelas said in a Viber message that the five-year tenor could be the sweet spot, but noted that “the geopolitical climate could shift anytime.”

Mr. Asuncion added that market sentiment will continue to be guided by market volatility, inflation developments, policy expectations, and global interest rate movements.

“The government is expected to remain opportunistic and launch the offering when financing conditions are most favorable,” he added.

Meanwhile, a trader said in a text message that the government could issue the RTB in September, when several maturities are scheduled.

On next year's planned issuance, Ms. Almanza said the government remains open to global bond issuances depending on market conditions.

“Of course, we are looking at other currencies, but depending on the market, depending on the conditions, it can be euro, yen, or the usual US dollar,” she told reporters.

Ms. Almanza said the government has $5-billion eligible government bonds that can be included in JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM).

Membership in widely tracked benchmarks such as the GBI-EM matters for issuer governments because funds that benchmark against these indices typically hold the bonds of included markets, broadening the foreign investor base for local-currency debt.

The Philippines is scheduled to enter the GBI-EM on Jan. 29, 2027. The index will include Philippine peso-denominated government bonds issued since 2023 with tenors of up to 20 years.