NewsCommodities & ForexPeso Edges Lower Versus Dollar as US-Iran Tensions Keep Oil Prices Elevated

Peso Edges Lower Versus Dollar as US-Iran Tensions Keep Oil Prices Elevated

Author: Bworldonline·

Key Takeaways

  • •The peso closed at P62.565 per dollar on Tuesday, weakening by two centav from the previous session's P62.545 finish.
  • •Escalating US-Iran tensions lifted global oil prices and safe-haven demand for the dollar, the two pressures cited for the peso's decline.
  • •Daily dollar turnover rose to $1.484 billion on Tuesday from $1.405 billion in the prior session.
  • •For Wednesday, a trader sees the peso moving between P62.45 and P62.70, while economist Michael L. Ricafort expects a P62.45-to-P62.65 range as potentially strong US data looms.
  • •Brent crude traded above $106 a barrel after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's ceasefire proposal, with upcoming US PCE and payrolls reports set to influence Federal Reserve rate expectations.
Peso Edges Lower Versus Dollar as US-Iran Tensions Keep Oil Prices Elevated

THE PHILIPPINE peso slipped further against the dollar on Tuesday as the prolonged conflict between the United States and Iran continued to drive up global crude oil prices.

The local currency weakened by two centavos to close at P62.565 versus the greenback from its P62.545 finish on Monday, according to data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines’ website.

The peso opened Tuesday’s session stronger at P62.40 per dollar. It touched an intraday high of P62.37, while its weakest showing for the day was P62.62 against the greenback. Total dollar turnover rose to $1.484 billion from $1.405 billion in the previous session.

“The peso weakened on escalating tensions between the US and Iran,” a trader said in a Viber message.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said elevated global oil prices and safe-haven demand for the greenback amid the conflict have also continued to weigh on the currency.

The two pressure points are closely linked for the Philippines, which relies on imports for its crude requirements: costlier oil enlarges the economy’s dollar outlays, while a weaker peso makes each of those dollar purchases more expensive in local-currency terms.

For Wednesday, the trader said the peso could weaken further as potentially strong US data is scheduled for release overnight. The trader sees the peso moving between P62.45 and P62.70 against the dollar, while Mr. Ricafort expects it to trade within a P62.45-to-P62.65 range.

Elsewhere, the dollar rose on Tuesday and was on track to surpass several-month highs against major peers, as volatile oil prices and a rapid climb in Treasury yields lent support, Reuters reported.

Oil prices crept back up on Tuesday, with Brent crude futures trading above $106 a barrel as markets doubted the success of renewed efforts to end the Iran war, after US President Donald J. Trump rejected Tehran’s ceasefire proposal.

The dollar’s next test will come from this week’s key US economic releases, including the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Wednesday and nonfarm payrolls on Friday, which will be watched for signs of whether they support the case for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. The Fed’s policy direction is a standing influence on emerging-market currencies like the peso, as shifts in US yields and rate expectations shape the dollar’s pull on global funds.

— A.M.C. Sy with Reuters