NewsMacroPhilippine Peso Weakens as Escalating US-Iran Conflict Sends Oil Prices Surging

Philippine Peso Weakens as Escalating US-Iran Conflict Sends Oil Prices Surging

Author: Bworldonline·

Key Takeaways

  • The Philippine peso fell 15 centavos to close at P61.56 per US dollar on Thursday, down from P61.41 in the previous session.
  • Brent crude futures jumped more than 8% to surpass $90 per barrel after the US military struck dozens of Iranian Revolutionary Guard targets in a two-hour operation.
  • The Philippines recorded a $4.94-billion trade-in-goods deficit in June, expanding 12.3% from the $4.4-billion shortfall posted in the same month a year earlier.
  • The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, with fed funds futures now pricing a 34.9% probability of no rate cut at the September policy meeting.
  • Trading volume declined to $1.374 billion from $1.618 billion in the prior session, reflecting eased market participation amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
Philippine Peso Weakens as Escalating US-Iran Conflict Sends Oil Prices Surging

The Philippine peso declined against the US dollar on Thursday, pressured by a sharp spike in global oil prices following a fresh exchange of attacks between the United States and Iran. The Philippines imports nearly all of its crude oil requirements, leaving the local currency especially exposed to energy price shocks that widen the country's dollar outflows for fuel shipments.

The currency lost 15 centavos to close at P61.56 per dollar, down from its P61.41 finish on Wednesday, according to data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines' website. The local unit opened Thursday's session flat at P61.41, climbing to an intraday high of P61.345 before slipping to a low of P61.58. Trading volume eased, with total dollars exchanged falling to $1.374 billion from $1.618 billion in the previous session.

"The dollar-peso closed higher, tracking the rally in crude oil prices following fresh tensions in the Middle East after fresh US attacks on Iran," a trader said by phone. "The Federal Reserve's pause initially lowered the pair, but net buying later in the session supported the dollar on month-end demand."

The US military said it struck dozens of Islamic Revolutionary Guard targets in Iran — including military command centers and drone facilities — in a two-hour operation launched after Tehran fired ballistic missiles at American forces stationed in the Middle East, Reuters reported.

Earlier on Wednesday, US and Saudi forces carried out joint strikes against Iran-aligned groups in eastern Iraq, retaliating for drone attacks on Saudi oil targets launched from Iraqi territory. The operation marked the first time Riyadh has publicly participated in military strikes alongside Washington.

In Egypt, a drone struck a US-owned gas storage tanker at the Mediterranean port of Damietta, according to an initial assessment issued Wednesday by British maritime security firm Ambrey.

The latest strikes in Iraq and Egypt raised concerns that more Middle Eastern nations could be drawn into the conflict. This follows a declaration by the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen, who announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia last week.

The broader conflict began in February, when the United States and Israel launched a coordinated bombing campaign against Iran that US President Donald J. Trump initially said would last only a few weeks. A temporary ceasefire agreement reached in June subsequently collapsed amid renewed hostilities centered on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that Iran says it now controls.

The Strait of Hormuz — which carried roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows before the war — lies between Oman and Iran, connecting the Persian Gulf to the north with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea to the south. Any sustained disruption to the strait would have outsized implications for Asian economies, including the Philippines, which depend on Middle Eastern crude shipped through the passage.

Oil prices surged on Wednesday in one of the sharpest single-day spikes of the five-month war. Brent crude futures jumped more than 8%, pushing the benchmark well above $90 a barrel. The rally reversed much of a steep decline recorded earlier in the week, when President Trump had unexpectedly halted US strikes.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark policy interest rate steady, and Chair Kevin Warsh offered little clarity on how internal divisions within the rate-setting committee would ultimately be resolved. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, fed funds futures are now pricing a 34.9% probability that the central bank will maintain its current rate at its next two-day policy meeting concluding September 16 — up from a 24% chance prior to the latest meeting.

The peso was further weighed down by June trade data showing a wider Philippine deficit, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort noted in a Viber message. A wider trade gap increases net dollar outflows from the economy, as the country pays more for imports than it earns from exports, adding to downward pressure on the local unit.

Preliminary figures from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed the trade-in-goods balance — the difference between exports and imports — stood at a $4.94-billion deficit in June, expanding 12.3% from the $4.4-billion shortfall recorded in the same month a year earlier. On a month-on-month basis, however, the gap narrowed from the $6.1-billion deficit posted in May. June's figure also represented the smallest trade deficit in four months, dating back to the $4.01 billion recorded in February.

The country's trade balance has remained in deficit for more than a decade, since the last surplus of $64.95 million was posted in May 2015.

Looking ahead to Friday's session, the trader expects the peso to trade within a range of P61.40 to P61.75 per dollar, while Mr. Ricafort forecasts a narrower band of P61.45 to P61.65.

— Aaron Michael C. Sy with Reuters