By Isa Jane D. Acabal, Researcher

Ocean-based industries' contribution to the Philippine economy declined to a four-year low in 2025, as falling fishery output, softer global trade, weather disruptions, and rising operating costs weighed on the sector, analysts said.

Preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed the ocean economy accounting for 3.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices in 2025, down from a revised 3.9% in 2024. The last time the sector's GDP share was lower was in 2021, when it stood at 3.7%.

In gross value added (GVA) terms, the ocean economy expanded 5.3% to P1.08 trillion in 2025, up from P1.02 trillion a year earlier. However, the pace slowed from the 6.2% growth recorded in 2024 and represented the weakest annual expansion in five years, dating back to the 25.6% contraction in 2020 during the pandemic.

The decline in GDP share despite higher nominal GVA indicates that the ocean economy continued to expand, but not fast enough to keep pace with the broader economy at current prices.

"The slightly lower share of the ocean economy in GDP in 2025 can be attributed to ongoing declines in commercial fisheries and marine municipal fishery production brought about by fish stock depletion and habitat degradation," Cid L. Terosa, an associate professor of economics at the University of Asia and the Pacific, said in an e-mail.

According to the PSA's Fisheries Situation Report, total fishery production reached 3.96 million metric tons (MT) in 2025, declining 2.5% from 4.06 million MT in 2024.

"While ocean-based industries continued to grow by a healthy 5.3%, they faced headwinds from softer global trade, weather-related disruptions, and higher operating costs, which tempered growth compared with previous years," Jonathan L. Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said in a Viber message.

Among ocean-based activities, ocean fishing held the largest share of the total ocean economy at 24.1%, valued at P259.59 billion. It was followed by the manufacture of ocean-based products (21.3% or P229.03 billion), sea-based transportation and storage (16.3% or P175.74 billion), and coastal accommodation and food and beverage service activities (12.1% or P130.27 billion).

The mix underscores the sector's exposure to both resource-based activities such as fishing and service-oriented segments such as transport, storage, tourism, and food services.

Maritime safety, surveillance, and resource management posted the strongest year-on-year growth at 31.7%, reaching P63.87 billion in 2025 from P48.49 billion a year earlier. Marine insurance expanded 29.6% to P16.32 billion, while sea-based transportation and storage grew 10.8%.

Coastal recreation recorded the steepest decline, falling 16.4% to P52.85 billion, reversing the 6.6% growth seen in 2024.

On the employment front, the ocean economy generated 2.46 million jobs in 2025, an increase of 3.4% from 2.38 million in 2024, and represented 5% of total national employment.

Ocean fishing accounted for the largest share of ocean-based employment at 37.8%, or 928,000 workers, followed by sea-based transportation and storage (23.6% or 580,000) and coastal accommodation and food and beverage service activities (21.7% or 534,000).

Terosa expects moderate overall performance for the country's ocean economy in the current year.

"Fuel-dependent maritime production activities will be constrained by high energy costs due to the Middle East war. Commercial and ocean fishing will continue to underperform due to climate-related risks, weather disturbances, and resource depletion," he said.

"Meanwhile, sea-based transportation and storage activities, coastal construction, and maritime tourism will continue to ride the wave, benefiting from a strong momentum that started in late 2025," he added.

Ravelas said continued investments in ports, logistics, tourism, aquaculture, and other blue economy initiatives will drive growth in the sector.