Philippine nickel production is expected to remain flat this year as weather disruptions and weak prices weigh on miners, according to Dante R. Bravo, president of the Philippine Nickel Industry Association and Global Ferronickel Holding, Inc., a listed Philippine nickel producer.

Mr. Bravo told reporters at the industry mining conference that it is hard to see nickel output surpassing last year's level, with unfavorable weather imposing constraints on mining operations and unattractive prices doing little to incentivize miners to produce more.

The Philippines ranks among the world's largest producers of nickel ore and has been a leading supplier to Chinese smelters, particularly since Indonesia — the world's top nickel producer — moved to restrict raw ore shipments in order to develop domestic processing capacity. A flat year, in that setting, would keep Philippine ore volumes to Chinese buyers steady rather than growing them. Nickel is a key ingredient in stainless steel and an increasingly important component of electric vehicle batteries.

Mr. Bravo noted that Indonesia's decision to exit the ore export market in order to process its own nickel has had the effect of stabilizing market prices.

"China needs ore from us and we're able to supply," he added.

Looking ahead, Mr. Bravo said partnerships between the Philippines and Indonesia could help expand the market and introduce innovation, citing Indonesia's wide market reach and long experience in nickel production. He said Philippine involvement in Indonesia's value chain would be valuable, raising the prospect of future Indonesian investment.

"So if they want our nickel, if they can help us post-process it here, and then we export it to them as a semi-finished product, which they can turn into stainless steel… that's what we're after," Mr. Bravo added.

He also said the mining industry should be open to diversifying in the face of growing global demand for critical minerals, and expressed openness to expanding access for foreign investment.

"If they need our minerals, they want reliable access, and they're willing to invest, they're willing to process, then, we can agree on a different level of economics," he said.

Those three threads — Indonesian participation in local processing, broader foreign investment access, and diversification into other critical minerals — are where Mr. Bravo sees room for the industry to build on this year's flat production picture.

— Maria Mikaela H. Tormon, BusinessWorld (original report)