By Erika Mae P. Sinaking, Reporter

Rising consumer prices and a weakening peso are deepening public frustration with Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr., and analysts say the mounting economic strain — coupled with what they describe as weak government messaging — is making it harder for the administration to regain public trust.

Anthony Lawrence A. Borja, an associate professor of political science at De La Salle University, said Filipinos tend to hold national leaders accountable for economic problems regardless of their underlying causes. "Since Filipinos are obsessed with leaders, then government leaders, especially the President, will always be the primary target of discontent," he told BusinessWorld via Facebook Messenger.

In his assessment, the current inflation pressures stem from a combination of external forces, such as higher oil prices, and structural weaknesses in the Philippine economy, including the absence of strong domestic industries and agrarian industrialization. "These all hit close to home," he said.

Defending the peso

Mr. Marcos sought to project reassurance on Wednesday after the peso breached the P64-per-dollar level for the first time and posted record-low closes. "We have all the tools to defend the peso," he told reporters. "We have all the means to defend the peso."

The President said the government holds sufficient foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the currency, blaming the peso's decline on a stronger dollar and higher oil prices. Foreign exchange reserves — foreign-currency holdings managed in the Philippines by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, the country's central bank — are the conventional buffer policymakers use to damp abrupt currency swings. The peso's slide matters at the household level because the Philippines relies on imported fuel, and a weaker peso raises the peso cost of dollar-priced goods.

Palace Press Officer Clarissa A. Castro said the currency pressures confronting the Philippines are not unique, citing similar challenges faced by Japan and South Korea. She pointed to global oil prices, US interest rates, geopolitical conflicts and foreign investor behavior among the factors weighing on the peso.

Mr. Borja, however, suggested the administration's argument that the developments are largely beyond its control may not resonate with the public. "Such a fixation serves as blinders to the impact of external factors on matters of global trade," he said, referring to the public's focus on the President. "Moreover, if we assume that Filipinos are aware of the lack of economic fundamentals, then such can blunt any attempt to project such problems as outside government control," he added.

'Disconnected'

Martin R. Racza, secretary-general of the sociopolitical group August Twenty-One Movement, said economic hardship is stoking public anger and reshaping family life, as more Filipinos seek work overseas to support relatives back home. Labor migration is a defining feature of the Philippine economy, and remittances from overseas Filipinos rank among the country's largest sources of foreign exchange. "In the simplest of terms, this government is a failure when it comes to connecting with the public," he told BusinessWorld via Messenger.

He said official attempts to reassure the public have often drawn ridicule because they appear disconnected from the lived experience of ordinary Filipinos. "Marcos' 'don't panic' is an insult to families with jobless members, sinking in debt, and having to eat less and have their children stop schooling," Mr. Racza said.

He also called for appointing more middle- and working-class representatives to economic and labor agencies, arguing they would better understand how government policies affect ordinary households.

Communication is critical

Both analysts said communication will be decisive for the administration going forward. Mr. Borja said the government should demonstrate progress on the promises made in Mr. Marcos' State of the Nation Address (SONA), the President's annual policy address to Congress, and move decisively on its anti-corruption campaign.

Mr. Racza, for his part, urged the President to engage the public more directly. "Marcos needs to talk to his people more," he said. "Shrug off the 'cool, unperturbed' image. Be more honest in your opinions towards national problems. Stop attempting to placate and start speaking the truth, even if it's inconvenient."

Malacañang, the President's official residence and seat of executive authority, has said the government and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas are implementing measures to cushion the impact of the peso's depreciation. These include accelerated infrastructure spending, a P10-billion assistance program for farmers and fisherfolk, fuel subsidies for public transport operators, and efforts to keep prices of basic goods stable.

Ratings slide

Public sentiment data underscore the depth of discontent. A survey by Pulse Asia Research, an independent polling firm, released on Oct. 15 showed 71% of Filipinos viewed inflation as the country's most urgent issue, ahead of fighting corruption (39%) and increasing workers' pay (36%). Eighty-one percent disapproved of the administration's handling of inflation.

The Philippine Statistics Authority is set to release October inflation data on Nov. 5. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas expects inflation to settle at 7.1% to 8.1%, up from 7.2% in September, citing pressure from fuel, transport and electricity costs. The Nov. 5 release will provide the next official reading and show whether price growth lands within the central bank's projected band.

A separate third-quarter survey by Social Weather Stations, a private, nonpartisan social research institute, showed Mr. Marcos' net satisfaction rating fell four points to -11 in September from June, with 35% of adult Filipinos satisfied with his performance and 46% dissatisfied. SWS computes the net score as the share of satisfied respondents minus the share of dissatisfied, meaning dissatisfied respondents outnumbered satisfied ones by 11 percentage points.

"Naturally, the blame of economic mismanagement will fall on the shoulders of the administration," Mr. Racza said. "The opinion that this government is the worst in Philippine history, particularly on the economic front, is steadily and increasingly gaining ground in the population, hence his negative public rating."

Mr. Borja, meanwhile, remained skeptical that the administration would fully deliver on its pledges. "I personally doubt whether these two will be accomplished," he said, referring to efforts to fulfill the SONA commitments and conclude the anti-corruption campaign.