By Marron Joshua F. Mendoza

Agricultural production in the second quarter is estimated to have declined year on year, driven by the onset of El Niño and higher farm input costs — including fuel and fertilizer — stemming from the Persian Gulf War.

Former Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar said that delayed distribution of government assistance to farmers, along with insufficient technical advice and extension services, could further weigh on the industry's performance during the quarter. He noted that fisheries and livestock are unlikely to post growth, while crop and poultry output may see only minimal gains.

"With a very strong El Niño coupled with the high fuel and fertilizer costs and delayed government assistance, the second half will not be better compared to last year. There is a perfect storm happening affecting agriculture in general," Mr. Dar told BusinessWorld via Viber.

Mr. Dar emphasized that despite agriculture's relatively small share of gross domestic product — roughly 8–9% based on Philippine Statistics Authority data — it remains closely monitored due to its significant influence on food prices. The sector employs a sizable portion of the country's workforce, particularly in rural provinces, making output trends a key barometer for household food security. He described food inflation during the period as "one of the major contributors to overall inflation."

He also pointed to farmer reluctance to plant as a contributing factor, as growers respond to the looming threat of El Niño and elevated fuel and fertilizer costs.

"Chances are that some farmers are not planting due to the above factors. The farming sector will be economically affected with lower incomes," Mr. Dar said.

"If there is lower rice production this coming season then the government will need to double its efforts in terms of extending assistance and building the resilience of the farming sector," he added. The Philippines is among the world's top rice importers, making domestic palay output levels a critical factor in trade planning and consumer rice prices.

Raul Q. Montemayor, national manager of the Federation of Free Farmers, similarly does not expect agricultural output in the second quarter to exceed the year-earlier level. He attributed this mainly to the impact of the energy crisis, which has disrupted mechanized processes across the industry such as tilling, irrigation, and logistics.

"We had a relatively good second quarter output (GVA) last year compared to 2025, boosted mostly by the crop subsector. For this year's second quarter, I don't expect output to surpass 2025 levels, and it might actually be lower mainly due to the effects of the oil crisis," Mr. Montemayor told BusinessWorld via Viber.

Citing data from the Philippine Statistics Authority, Mr. Montemayor noted that palay (unmilled rice) and corn production for the second quarter rose year on year but declined compared to the first quarter. He added that the impact of high fertilizer prices and El Niño is expected to manifest more strongly later in the year, when the dry spell's full effect on water availability for irrigation becomes more pronounced.

Arnel V. De Mesa, Department of Agriculture (DA) spokesman and assistant secretary for Special Concerns and Official Development Assistance, offered a more optimistic outlook for the second quarter, citing strong palay prices that have encouraged farmers.

"We are expecting production to be okay because a large portion of the sector's output is in rice," Mr. De Mesa said.

Mr. De Mesa also pointed to a potential increase in exports later in the year, supported by ongoing trade negotiations with Japan, the European Union, and Canada. Once those trade agreements are finalized, "it will contribute to the increase in our production of high-value commercial crops because exports fetch high prices," he said.

Mr. De Mesa added that the DA is directing its regional field offices to identify ways to maximize yields in areas not expected to be severely affected by El Niño. He also called for improved water management to mitigate the impact of the dry spell.