Philippine Exporters Expect $108 Billion in Merchandise Shipments This Year
Key Takeaways
- •Philexport projects Philippine merchandise exports to reach $108 billion by year-end, which would represent about 28% growth over the record $84.48 billion recorded in 2025.
- •Merchandise exports climbed 17.23% year on year to $73.95 billion in the nine months to September, with the monthly expansion the strongest since the 74.23% surge in April 2021.
- •The United States, the top destination that received $2.63 billion in September shipments equivalent to 26.6% of the month's exports, imposed a 12.5% tariff on Philippine goods in July after the US Trade Representative found the country was importing goods made with forced labor.
- •Continued export growth hinges on US tariff exemptions for electronics and agricultural goods, which anchor the shipment mix as electronic product shipments jumped 31.8% to $44.06 billion and agro-based exports rose 1.3% to $5.53 billion.
- •Higher production costs, inadequate infrastructure, and ease-of-doing-business concerns have hampered diversification of export drivers, leading Philexport's president to note that many Philippine products are not competitive.
By Beatriz Marie D. Cruz, Senior Reporter | BusinessWorld
Merchandise exports from the Philippines are projected to reach $108 billion by the end of this year, though United States tariff policy remains a key risk to the outlook, the Philippine Exporters Confederation, Inc. (Philexport) said.
“Our computation (for exports) is around $108 billion,” Philexport President Sergio R. Ortiz-Luis, Jr. told reporters last week. “The jump won’t be as large but the increase in exports will continue,” he said.
Merchandise exports rose 17.23% year on year to $73.95 billion in the nine months to September. The September expansion was the strongest since the 74.23% surge recorded in April 2021.
Full-year merchandise exports totaled $84.48 billion in 2025, the highest level since the government began tracking the indicator in 1991. Reaching $108 billion would imply roughly $34 billion in shipments over the final quarter and full-year growth of about 28% over the 2025 record.
Mr. Ortiz-Luis said policy uncertainty surrounding US tariffs continues to pose a risk to the export outlook. The United States has long been the top destination for Philippine-made goods, taking in shipments worth $2.63 billion in September, equivalent to 26.6% of the month’s exports — a concentration that leaves more than a quarter of monthly shipments exposed to any shift in US tariff policy.
In July, US President Donald J. Trump imposed a 12.5% tariff on Philippine exports after the US Trade Representative found that the country was importing goods made with forced labor. The measure replaced the 10% baseline tariff on Philippine-made goods, which expired on July 24.
Mr. Ortiz-Luis said the exemption of electronics and agricultural goods from the US tariffs is critical to keeping exports up — a reliance reflected in the shipment mix: electronic product shipments jumped 31.8% to $44.06 billion at the end of September, nearly 60% of the period’s merchandise exports, while total agro-based product exports rose 1.3% to $5.53 billion.
He said the Philippines has struggled to diversify its export drivers because production costs are higher than in other countries, citing inadequate infrastructure and concerns over ease of doing business as key bottlenecks.
“The reality is that many of our products are not competitive,” he added.
Source: BusinessWorld — Exporters expect to ship $108 billion this year
