Veteran trader Peter Brandt signaled a bearish lean on Bitcoin on Aug. 10, pointing to a large head-and-shoulders pattern on the chart. Bitcoin was trading near $65,000 at the time, with resistance around $67,260 capping the recovery even as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $865.3 million in inflows over five days.

In a post on X, Brandt stated that he had not yet opened a position. "I am not in the bet yet, but if I were to bet it would be for a decline," he wrote.

I am not in the bet yet, but if I were to bet it would be for a decline pic.twitter.com/lLrcGM371V — The Factor Report (@PeterLBrandt) August 9, 2026

Technical Setup: Head-and-Shoulders Targets $58,000

Brandt's cautious posture follows a breakdown from a head-and-shoulders formation that developed between April and June. The head-and-shoulders is a widely monitored chart pattern that technicians associate with trend reversals, and its measured move is calculated by projecting the distance from the head to the neckline downward from the breakout point. According to his chart, the neckline was broken at $75,000, with the projected measured move pointing toward $58,000. Brandt noted this figure as a technical objective derived from the chart pattern rather than a confirmed price target.

On the daily timeframe, BTC was trading around $65,021. The cryptocurrency held above its 54-day simple moving average at $64,352 but remained below the resistance line at $67,260. A break above $67,260 would weaken the bearish implications of the pattern.

The Average True Range stood at 1,672, indicating that daily trading ranges remain wide. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index sat at 11.16, signaling weak trend strength. The low ADX reading is consistent with sideways consolidation following the prior pullback into the $58,000–$60,000 zone.

ETF Inflows Counter Bearish Chart Signals

Institutional demand moved in the opposite direction from the technical warnings. Since their approval in January 2024, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a primary conduit for institutional and retail capital allocation to Bitcoin, making their flow trends a closely tracked gauge of demand. Data from Farside Investors showed five consecutive days of positive inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs from Aug. 3 to Aug. 7, totaling $170.1 million, $211.5 million, $244.4 million, $137.6 million, and $101.7 million, respectively. The cumulative inflow over the period reached $865.3 million.

These flows provided a counterweight to bearish chart patterns and whale activity being monitored on-chain.

Whale Sales Add to Downward Pressure

On-chain data tracker Lookonchain reported that a single whale sold an additional 1,019 BTC valued at approximately $66.4 million. The same wallet had previously sold 7,513 BTC worth roughly $486.9 million over a three-week period. These transactions reflect selling by one tracked holder and do not indicate broader coordinated selling among large Bitcoin investors.

Separately, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted on Aug. 8 that Bitcoin's price remained below the realized price of short-term holders, which he placed at $67,523. This metric represents the average acquisition cost of coins held for fewer than 155 days and serves as a breakeven level for that cohort. When price trades below this level, it indicates that a significant portion of recent market entrants are holding positions at a loss, a condition that has historically coincided with elevated selling pressure from that cohort. The figure sits in close proximity to Brandt's identified resistance zone.

CPI Report Looms as Key Macro Event

The next major macroeconomic catalyst is the release of the July U.S. Consumer Price Index on Aug. 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET. CPI data feeds directly into Federal Reserve policy deliberations, and softer-than-expected inflation readings have previously influenced expectations for interest-rate adjustments, which in turn affect sentiment across risk assets including cryptocurrencies. In the previous labor market report, nonfarm payrolls declined by 23,000 in July, while May and June figures were revised lower by a combined 103,000.

Immediate support for Bitcoin is situated near the 54-day moving average at $64,352, while resistance is clustered between $67,260 and $67,523. Failure to clear this zone keeps Brandt's $58,000 technical scenario in play.