PENGU, the meme coin associated with the Pudgy Penguins brand, is testing a descending trendline that has repeatedly preceded double-digit rebounds, putting the token's next move under close scrutiny as bearish pressure builds. A descending trendline connects successive lower highs and is commonly used by chartists to map a downtrend, making each retest a checkpoint for whether that trend remains intact.

As of press time, PENGU traded at $0.007855, down 9.62% over the past 24 hours, according to the daily TradingView chart cited in the analysis. Analyst Ali Charts noted on X that previous tests of the same trendline triggered rebounds of 13.17%, 15.62%, and 13.39%, raising the possibility of another recovery toward $0.0098 if the pattern repeats.

Why PENGU Is Retesting a Critical Trendline

According to Ali Charts, PENGU has rebounded repeatedly after testing the same descending trendline over the past two weeks. Those earlier recoveries ranged from approximately 13% to 16%, making the current retest a potential signal for traders watching for a shift in momentum.

"If history repeats, a similar rebound could take PENGU back toward $0.0098," Ali Charts stated.

That target remains conditional rather than guaranteed. The latest price decline, combined with bearish momentum indicators, suggests that sellers currently hold the upper hand in the short term.

What the Daily TradingView Chart Shows

On the daily chart, PENGU is trading below all four of its key exponential moving averages (EMAs), indicators that weight recent price data more heavily and are widely used to track shifts in trend and momentum. The 20-day EMA stands at $0.009005, the 50-day EMA at $0.008498, the 100-day EMA at $.008025, and the 200-day EMA at $0.008413.

With the token changing hands at $0.007855, all four averages sit above the current price. Each of these levels could act as resistance during a recovery, and buyers would need to reclaim the moving averages to strengthen the bullish outlook.

Can PENGU Climb Back Toward $0.0098?

The MACD indicator, a momentum tool that measures the relationship between two moving averages, is flashing a bearish signal. Its histogram reads -0.000202, while the MACD line at 0.000131 sits below the signal line at 0.000332, indicating that bearish momentum is strengthening rather than fading.

For a recovery to take shape, PENGU would first need to reclaim the $0.0081–$0.0085 area and sustain a move above it. Reaching $0.0098 would require additional buying pressure and a decisive break above the moving averages. Notably, $0.0098 sits above all four EMA levels, meaning the target would require price to clear the entire moving-average cluster.

From the current price of $0.007855, the $0.0098 target would represent a gain of approximately 24.8%, larger than any of the three previous rebounds highlighted by Ali Charts.

How CoinGlass Data Shapes the Outlook

According to CoinGlass, PENGU's open interest stood at roughly $150 million around October 8. Open interest measures the total value of outstanding derivatives positions, helping traders assess the level of activity and leverage in futures markets.

The liquidation chart also shows a notable spike in long liquidations near the most recent date, suggesting that leveraged bullish positions faced increased pressure. Long liquidations occur when leveraged buy-side positions are forcibly closed as price moves against them. The chart alone does not establish whether further liquidations will follow or confirm the direction of future price movements.

What Traders Should Watch Next

As PENGU attempts to stabilize, the $0.0081–$0.0085 range stands out as a key recovery zone. A sustained move above that area could support a rebound, while continued weakness would leave the token vulnerable to further declines.

The $0.0098 level remains a potential rebound target rather than a confirmed outcome. Traders can monitor price action around the moving-average cluster, the MACD trend, and changes in open interest to assess whether buyers are regaining control.

Cryptocurrency markets remain highly volatile, and traders should weigh price action, market sentiment, and upcoming catalysts before making any investment decisions.

This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. Always DYOR. Not financial advice.