Global PC shipments are expected to decline by 27% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2026, according to preliminary industry data from Counterpoint Research, a sign that the personal computer market's worst crisis in history is still unfolding.

The projected downturn is attributed to a market stabilisation that is expected to lose momentum, with memory chip shortages showing no sign of a rapid turnaround. Counterpoint's forecast indicates the market "broadly flat" compared with what it experienced in 2025. For an industry already carrying back-to-back quarterly declines, the forecast makes upcoming shipment reports a barometer of whether the memory shortage begins to ease.

According to the report, any stabilisation in the PC market should not be mistaken for a recovery. Combinations of AI PCs, premium displays and differentiated products are expected to create new waves of opportunity, but the manufacturers that ultimately control the PC market will be those that combine innovation with competitive pricing, precise supply management and the ability to create value for consumers.

The crisis is not confined to PCs. The global device industry, including smartphones, is grappling with the continued diversion of memory chips toward AI-enhanced facilities such as data centres and sophisticated models. The current position is also being shaped by vendors' ongoing inventory reduction and production repositioning. With memory supply still flowing toward data centre operators, PC makers face a component-level cost squeeze that keeps upward pressure on system prices across the market.

Manufacturers Caught Between Margins and Affordability

David Naranjo, Associate Director at Counterpoint Research, said the global PC market has entered a readjustment stage, leaving manufacturers caught in a balancing act between protecting margins and maintaining affordability, particularly as consumer demand continues to deteriorate.

"The PC industry is entering a period of structural adjustment, where rising component costs, higher system prices and longer replacement cycles are fundamentally reshaping market dynamics," Naranjo said in the report.

The shortage of chips has made PC production more expensive, but the crisis runs deeper than the resulting surge in selling prices. As manufacturers roll out new models and configurations designed to absorb cost inflation, diminished affordability is making it harder for buyers — especially price-sensitive consumers — to purchase devices.

That dynamic has placed further pressure on shipment volumes and made manufacturers more cautious about expanding inventory, the backdrop to the projected 27% year-on-year decline in the fourth quarter of 2026. How each vendor manages the trade-off between absorbing costs and keeping devices within reach of price-sensitive buyers is set to shape not only quarterly volumes but the competitive rankings that follow.

Q3 2026 Data Confirm Deep Contraction

Counterpoint Research reported that the market suffered a 21% year-on-year drop in Q3 2026 to 57 million units, a decline attributed largely to memory prices and other component costs. Shipments also fell 13.8% quarter-on-quarter.

The latest report corroborates earlier analyses showing that the PC market endured one of its weakest quarters in recent years. Data from IDC showed global PC shipments fell 20.1% year-on-year in Q3 2026 to 62.7 million units, down from the 78.5 million units recorded a year earlier. IDC noted that the Q3 dip marked the second consecutive quarterly decline and was steeper than the 3.8% drop in Q2. It was also one of the lowest third quarters in recent years, all the more striking given that Q3 is traditionally a seasonally strong period. Taken together, the two firms' readings point to a market contracting under component-cost pressure at precisely the time of year it usually lifts.

"The global PC market is facing mounting pressure as rising memory and component costs push system prices higher and force consumers to delay replacement purchases," said Minsoo Kang, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research.

Kang noted that as affordability becomes an increasingly critical purchasing factor, market leaders are struggling to maintain shipment momentum, with major manufacturers experiencing significant declines during the quarter.

Leading Vendors

Lenovo retained its market leadership despite a 23% year-on-year decline, shipping 15 million units for a 26.3% market share. HP ranked second with 10.3 million units and an 18.1% share, but its 31% year-on-year shipment decline was the steepest among the top six vendors.

Dell ranked third, shipping 7.6 million units, down 25% year-on-year, for a 13.3% market share.

Apple outperformed the overall market, recording the lowest shipment decline at 11% year-on-year to 5.6 million units. That gave the company a 9.8% market share, up from 8.7% a year earlier — a relative strength attributed to its MacBook Neo.

ASUS shipped 5.2 million units, down 7% year-on-year, the smallest annual decline among the top five vendors, lifting its market share to 9.2% from 7.8% a year earlier.

Collectively, the five leading vendors accounted for 76.7% of global PC shipments. All other vendors shipped 13.3 million units, down 16% year-on-year. The gap between ASUS's 7% decline and HP's 31% shows how unevenly the affordability squeeze is landing across the top of the market, even as every leading vendor lost volume.

With Q4 now the next checkpoint, the figures to watch are whether the projected 27% decline materialises, whether vendors' inventory caution continues to hold back shipments, and whether differentiated products such as AI PCs begin to generate the new waves of opportunity the report anticipates.