Pittsburgh Pirates right-handed starter Paul Skenes turned in a strong performance, throwing five scoreless innings, but the outing was not without warning signs. Skenes worked through a noticeable number of two-strike counts, and his fastball velocity continued to trend downward.

Skenes, the reigning National League Cy Young winner, has seen his average fastball velocity fall to 96.9 mph this season, down from the 98.8 mph he averaged as a rookie. For a pitcher who relied heavily on elite fastball velocity as a rookie, even a modest reduction can affect swing-and-miss rates and how hitters approach at-bats, which is why velocity trends are watched closely across the industry in a pitcher's second full season. The Pirates have offered reassurances about his health, yet market participants appear to be treating the velocity reduction as a factor that could weigh on his Cy Young candidacy.

Key Takeaways

Market pricing suggests that Skenes' recent performances, while strong, may point to a slight decline in his chances of repeating as the Cy Young Award winner.

The drop in velocity appears consistent with reduced market confidence in his ability to sustain top-tier performance.

Current odds for Skenes to win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award reflect a cautious outlook, with a notable drop in confidence over the past week.

What to Watch

Observers will monitor Skenes' upcoming starts closely to see whether he can remain effective despite the reduced velocity. Any further decline in performance could correspond with continued erosion of his Cy Young odds.

The Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA) and MLB analysts will offer insight into whether Skenes remains a viable contender as the season progresses. Attention will also focus on any shifts in support toward other candidates, including Jacob Misiorowski, the Milwaukee Brewers rookie right-hander who currently leads in the odds and who has drawn attention for his own high-velocity fastball.