The Palm Beach Post — the largest newspaper in Palm Beach, home to President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Resort — says Republicans face troubling signs heading into the midterms. Along with weak polling for Trump and the GOP, the paper says a newly created Florida district carved out under the state’s redistricted map appears more competitive than Republicans expected, underscoring how redistricting fights in several states are now feeding directly into the fight for control of the House.

“Trump's low approval rating is enough to raise alarms for Republicans in the midterm elections this fall,” the Post wrote, adding that “new polls show a majority of voters are opting for Democrats on a generic ballot.” Trump has pushed redistricting efforts in Texas, setting off a multi-state map battle that ultimately gave Republicans more potential seats to pursue. Even so, the Post said pollsters have found that “voters' enthusiasm and intention lean Democratic,” and one of Florida’s new districts has emerged as a toss-up.

Florida’s 25th Congressional District, which stretches along the coast from Miami Beach to Delray Beach, was drawn by Republican lawmakers to be a conservative-leaning seat. The non-partisan Cook Political Report, however, lists it as a toss-up leaning solidly Democrat. The Post said Representative Jared Moskowitz (D-FL), the incumbent in the 23rd District, is running for the seat.

The Post also cited several recent polls that it said point to a difficult environment for Republicans. An Emerson College Polling survey found 53 percent of Americans were more likely to vote Democratic in a generic 2026 congressional ballot, compared with 42 percent who said Republican. The paper said the Democratic advantage was driven by women voters, who favored the Democratic candidate by 27 points, 56 percent to 39 percent, while men were more divided, with 49 percent supporting the Democrat and 44 percent the Republican.

The same poll gave Trump a 39 percent job approval rating and a 57 percent disapproval rating.

The Post also pointed to a recent Fox News poll showing that 68 percent of Democrats were extremely motivated to vote in November, compared with 57 percent of Republicans. The paper said respondents were also more likely to say Democrats could better handle several issues, including the economy and inflation, issues Trump ran on in 2024, which helps explain why the generic-ballot numbers are drawing attention well before Election Day.

In the same Fox News poll, 53 percent of voters said they would back the Democratic candidate in a House race if the election were held today, compared with 46 percent who would support the Republican candidate. Fox News said 53 percent was the highest figure received by either party in its generic House ballot polls since 1996.

Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who works with Democrat Chris Anderson to conduct Fox News polls, said, "The best estimates I’ve seen suggest the GOP could retain the House even if the Democrats win the national vote by 2-3 points, but if Democrats win by 6-7 points, they probably take the House."