Palantir Shares Fall Despite Q3 Beat and Higher Full-Year Guidance
Key Takeaways
- •Palantir shares dropped roughly 5% to $169.11 in Tuesday premarket trading even though the company beat revenue and profit expectations for the third quarter.
- •Third-quarter revenue rose 96% year over year to $2.313 billion, exceeding the $2.17 billion analyst consensus, while adjusted EPS of $0.44 topped the $0.40 estimate.
- •US commercial revenue jumped 148% year over year and accelerated 29% quarter over quarter to $984 million, exceeding US government revenue for the first time.
- •Palantir raised full-year revenue guidance to between $8.530 billion and $8.534 billion, above the $8.2 billion consensus, and lifted its 2026 revenue growth guidance by roughly nine percentage points.
- •Wall Street remains broadly positive with 30 Buy, nine Hold, and two Sell ratings and a $216 consensus price target that sits well above Tuesday's premarket share price.

Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) shares traded at $169.11 in premarket trading on Tuesday, down about 5% from Monday’s close of $178.34. The decline followed the company’s release of a third-quarter report that exceeded Wall Street expectations for revenue and adjusted profit while also raising its full-year outlook.
Palantir reported third-quarter revenue of $2.313 billion, a 96% increase from a year earlier and above the $2.17 billion analysts expected, according to Bloomberg data. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.44, compared with the $0.40 consensus estimate. Adjusted operating margin increased to 61.7%, versus analysts’ expectation of 60.2%.
The company said US commercial revenue grew 148% year over year in the quarter. US commercial revenue accelerated 29% quarter over quarter to $984 million and exceeded US government revenue for the first time — a crossover that shifts the composition of the business toward its fastest-growing segment. Overall revenue growth has accelerated for 13 consecutive quarters, a streak that has raised the bar for each successive quarterly report.
Palantir reported the results in a post on X:
Palantir reports Q3 ‘26 US comm revenue growth of 148% Y/Y and revenue growth of 96% Y/Y; raises FY ’26 revenue guidance to 91% Y/Y growth and US comm revenue guidance to 143% Y/Y, crushing consensus expectations. US comm revenue accelerated to 29% growth Q/Q and was $984… pic.twitter.com/GJByjorwgC — Palantir (@PalantirTech) November 2, 2026
The company’s post is also available at https://x.com/PalantirTech/status/2117362675743093025?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw and
Guidance and business mix
Palantir now expects full-year revenue of between $8.530 billion and $8.534 billion, compared with analysts’ estimate of $8.2 billion. Management also raised its US commercial sales target to more than $3.559 billion and increased its 2026 revenue growth guidance by approximately nine percentage points. The company’s current full-year revenue growth guidance is 91%, while its US commercial revenue growth guidance is 143%. Those figures now serve as published benchmarks against which the company’s next several quarterly reports will be measured.
Chief Executive Officer Alex Karp used a sports analogy during the earnings call, saying, “We’ve gone from being the most attractive person in the physics department to being the captain of the football team.”
Palantir has also pushed back against concerns that artificial intelligence could disrupt the software industry. The company argues that some businesses pay millions of dollars for model tokens and receive “AI slop,” while Palantir’s infrastructure layer provides more value.
The stock is up roughly 2% year to date but has been affected by the recent technology-sector sell-off. Earlier this year, Palantir’s Maven Smart System became an official Pentagon program, establishing a multiyear role for the company across US military AI projects. The two businesses now give the company distinct growth engines: a multiyear government AI program on one side and the faster-expanding commercial segment on the other.
Analysts’ reactions
Mizuho reiterated an Outperform rating and a $245 price target. The firm said Palantir combines revenue growth, acceleration and margin expansion at a scale unlike anything else in software.
Truist raised its price target to $250 and increased its 2026 revenue growth estimate to 91%. Piper Sandler lifted its target to $235, while Morgan Stanley set a $233 target. UBS reiterated a Buy rating and noted that Palantir’s 96% growth outpaced Snowflake and Datadog.
RBC raised its price target to $130 but maintained its Underperform rating. Across Wall Street, analysts hold 30 Buy ratings, nine Holds and two Sells. The consensus price target is $216. The spread between Truist’s $250 target and RBC’s $130 underscores how divided the Street remains, and the $216 consensus sits well above Tuesday’s premarket share price.
Source: CoinCentral