Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is set to report second-quarter 2026 earnings after the market close on August 3, and Wall Street is watching closely. The stock has traded mostly between $115 and $150 during 2026 after reaching nearly $200 in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Oppenheimer is entering the report with a bullish view. The firm expects Palantir to post year-over-year revenue growth of about 85%, above the company’s own guidance of roughly 79%. Oppenheimer also expects Palantir to raise its full-year outlook above the current 71% growth target.

Consensus estimates call for adjusted earnings per share of $0.35 on revenue of $1.81 billion. That would compare with adjusted EPS of $0.16 and revenue of $1 billion in the same quarter a year earlier.

The U.S. government segment remains the main growth driver. Oppenheimer pointed to increasing spending from the Department of Homeland Security and broader activity across military services and combatant commands. Growth in international government business is expected to be softer. According to the firm, some European allies are reportedly exploring alternative providers, which could weigh on that segment.

On the commercial side, Oppenheimer dismissed concerns that large artificial intelligence model providers could weaken Palantir’s position. The firm said Palantir’s Ontology platform is designed to handle more complex enterprise workflows than competing AI products. That matters because the August 3 report will offer another read on whether the company can keep converting AI interest into measurable revenue growth across both government and commercial customers.

Morningstar expressed a similar view on the company’s competitive position. It rates Palantir with a narrow economic moat, citing switching costs and proprietary intangible assets tied to the Ontology framework.

Valuation Remains the Main Debate

Morningstar’s fair value estimate for Palantir is $153, which implies a 2026 enterprise value-to-sales multiple of 48 times. At prices near that level, the firm assigns PLTR a three-star rating, indicating that the stock is fairly valued rather than cheap.

The broader valuation picture is even more elevated. As of late July, PLTR traded at about 71 times sales and 113 times forward earnings. That kind of pricing leaves little room for disappointment and makes guidance updates especially important when results are already expected to be strong.

Palantir’s balance sheet remains solid. As of March 2026, the company held approximately $2.2 billion in cash and had no debt. It has also posted three consecutive years of generally accepted accounting principles profitability, with 2025 more than three times as profitable as 2024.

Bear Case Focuses on Valuation and Competition

The bearish case centers on valuation and competitive pressure. Frontier AI labs are moving further up the software stack, and some reports have described large labs hiring away Palantir’s forward-deployed engineers.

Government spending also carries risk. Federal contracts depend on congressional appropriations, and any delays or changes in priorities can affect the timing of revenue recognition.

Palantir’s United Kingdom National Health Service contract has also faced data privacy opposition and legal scrutiny, adding friction to an already slow expansion in Europe.

Morningstar notes that if a viable alternative to the Ontology framework emerges, or if the total addressable market proves smaller than expected, the stock could see sharp downward price corrections.

Palantir has beaten estimates and raised guidance in each of its last several quarters. The question for August 3 is whether it can do so again, and whether another increase in guidance will be enough for a market that has already priced in much of the optimism.