Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) rose 5% on Monday after Oppenheimer analyst Param Singh outlined expectations for a stronger-than-guided second quarter ahead of the company’s earnings report on August 3.

Singh expects Palantir to exceed its Q2 revenue forecast by a wide margin, projecting year-over-year revenue growth of 84% to 85%. That compares with management’s guidance midpoint of 79%.

The call comes as PLTR remains down 29% year-to-date, with the stock affected by valuation concerns and increasing competition from generative AI companies. Singh said Palantir was “relatively immune” to the deal delays that affected other software companies during the second quarter.

Oppenheimer also expects Palantir to lift its full-year outlook to more than 75% growth, compared with the company’s current forecast of 71% growth. The August 3 report will therefore be watched not only for the quarterly revenue beat Singh expects, but also for whether management’s updated outlook supports the view that demand has remained resilient across Palantir’s key government and commercial businesses.

Consensus estimates call for Palantir to report Q2 adjusted earnings per share of $0.35 and revenue of $1.81 billion. In the same quarter last year, the company reported adjusted EPS of $0.16 and revenue of $1 billion.

US Government Segment Remains the Main Driver

Singh identified Palantir’s US Government business as the company’s core growth engine. He forecasts year-over-year growth in the low 80% range for the segment, citing higher Department of Homeland Security spending after the government shutdown ended on April 30.

The war in the Middle East was also cited as a demand driver. According to Singh’s checks, Palantir is winning more task orders as a prime contractor and is becoming “increasingly favored” across the Department of War.

International government growth is expected to be softer. Singh noted that European allies, including France and Germany, are distancing themselves from Palantir, while the company is facing “increased scrutiny” in the UK. That contrast keeps the focus on whether US government spending can continue to offset weaker international momentum.

US Commercial Growth Expected to Remain Strong

For Palantir’s US Commercial segment, Singh forecasts at least 135% year-over-year growth in Q2 and full-year growth of at least 125%.

Some investors have raised concerns that large language model providers using forward-deployed engineers could weaken Palantir’s competitive position. Singh said those concerns are overstated.

His checks suggest that Palantir’s Ontology platform supports workflows that are substantially more complex than the use cases currently targeted by LLM providers, which are focused on simpler applications.

Palantir also introduced new agentic AI products at DevCon 6 on July 14. The products include Orchestrator, Agent Engine, and Agent SDK, which are designed to address demand for agentic AI workflows.

Singh said the new tools should help reduce customers’ reliance on external platforms and shorten time-to-value. For investors assessing the commercial segment, the key issue is whether Palantir can translate those products into sustained customer adoption while defending its position against AI-native software providers.

Oppenheimer maintains an Outperform rating on Palantir with a $200 price target, which implies 58% upside from current levels. The Street’s average price target is $181.24, indicating 43% upside over the next twelve months.

Based on 15 Buy ratings, 4 Hold ratings, and 2 Sell ratings, the analyst consensus rates PLTR a Moderate Buy.