Prediction Markets Put Odds of OpenAI’s Next Model Astra Release at September End
Key Takeaways
- •OpenAI said internal testing showed Astra had advanced agentic coding and cybersecurity abilities that could not be ruled out as critical under its safety framework.
- •The company slowed Astra’s rollout on Aug. 7 because of cybersecurity risks.
- •Polymarket traders assign about 59% odds to a release by Sept. 15 and roughly 72% odds by Sept. 30.
- •Myriad traders also see Sept. 30 as the most likely deadline, with 31% odds for that date.
- •OpenAI has not announced a public release date, and the company said Astra was not involved in the Hugging Face exploitation incident.
OpenAI said on Aug. 7 that it had slowed Astra’s rollout after internal tests showed cyber capabilities it could not rule out as "Critical".
Prediction market traders are betting heavily on an Astra release by Sept. 30.
The model, reportedly OpenAI’s GPT-6, has not been given a public release date.
Prediction market traders appear convinced that OpenAI is preparing its next major AI model, even as the company has publicly signaled caution over safety and cybersecurity testing.
A market tracking the most likely release date of OpenAI’s upcoming model Astra, the company’s internal name for GPT-6, gives a 59% chance of launch by Sept. 15 and roughly 72% by the end of the month on Polymarket.
That confidence runs counter to OpenAI’s move earlier this month. On Aug. 7, the company said it had slowed Astra’s release, citing cybersecurity risks. In OpenAI’s own preparedness disclosure, internal evaluations of Astra showed "significant advancements in agentic coding and cybersecurity," and the company said it "cannot rule out critical cyber capabilities" under its safety framework.
By OpenAI’s definition, a model at the Critical threshold could find and build working zero-day exploits across many hardened systems without human help.
Despite that caution, the Polymarket odds still favor a near-term release. The Sept. 15 contract shows 59% odds at about $27,600 in volume, while the Sept. 30 contract stands near 72% on $35,600. A separate "which week" market points to an Aug. 31–Sept. 6 window as the favorite, with 39% odds. Because OpenAI has not announced a release date, the contracts resolve based on the company’s own announcement.
On Myriad, a prediction market maintained by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, the larger odds also point to Sept. 30 as the most likely deadline for GPT-6. Myriad traders assign 31% odds to the end of September, 19% odds to Sept. 15, and 5% odds to Aug. 21, although that longshot has been rising.
The gap between OpenAI’s caution and trader optimism is not unusual for this market. Prediction markets reached $2 billion in weekly volume this year as Polymarket’s lead widened, and OpenAI launch dates have remained a recurring favorite. In July, the odds of a public GPT-6 release by Sept. 30 were around 78%.
OpenAI’s post also said Astra "was not involved in exploiting Hugging Face," distancing the model from a recent incident as the company weighed how to ship a system it says it still cannot fully safety-test.
