OPEC+ is expected to continue lifting output quotas in September, with seven core members likely to add roughly 188,000 barrels per day to the group's collective target even as crude prices rise sharply following renewed supply disruption in the Red Sea. While modest relative to global oil demand, which exceeds 100 million barrels per day, the increase marks another step in the group's effort to gradually restore supply to the market.

Three sources familiar with the discussions said Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman are set to confirm the increase at the group's August 2 meeting. The planned September rise would match the increments already applied for June, July and August, extending a gradual and largely pre-scheduled unwind of earlier voluntary production cuts. Reuters reported the information overnight:

The expected decision indicates that OPEC+ is treating its monthly quota schedule as fixed policy rather than as a short-term mechanism to respond to price moves. The plan comes even with Brent crude above $100 a barrel and a second major shipping chokepoint now under threat, alongside the already disrupted Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil consumption transits daily.

Brent crude rose 7 percent on Thursday to $100.66 a barrel, its highest level in nearly two months, after Yemen's Houthi forces claimed missile and drone attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. West Texas Intermediate climbed more than 6 percent to above $92 a barrel, trading above $90 for the first time since June. Brent has now gained close to 40 percent in July.

The latest Red Sea escalation has sharpened the difference between formal quota policy and the physical availability of crude. Saudi, Iraqi and Kuwaiti output remains constrained by the wider conflict, limiting how much some members can actually pump and export. As a result, a nominal quota increase may not translate into a meaningful rise in crude reaching buyers in September.

OPEC+ has continued adding to quotas on a nearly identical monthly schedule since the conflict began, framing the process as a gradual reversal of previous voluntary cuts rather than a tool for managing the current price spike. That approach reflects a continuing challenge for the group: several of its most important producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, have had actual export capacity restricted for months, so increases on paper have often not appeared as equivalent increases in physical barrels delivered to the market.

The new disruption could widen that gap further. With Bab el-Mandeb crossings already falling sharply and tankers rerouting away from Saudi ports, the September quota increase may again be largely symbolic unless shipping conditions improve materially before then. The strait, which links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, is a critical artery for crude shipments from Middle East producers to European and Atlantic basin refiners; prolonged disruptions there typically force longer, costlier voyages around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, tightening effective supply even when nominal output quotas rise.

For now, the physical market remains tight regardless of the headline quota figure. The direction of prices is likely to depend more on developments in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz than on the formal outcome of the August 2 OPEC+ meeting. Traders are likely to focus on actual loading data before treating the announced increase as evidence of additional supply reaching the market.